Match Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 December 14, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

Bayern München enter this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a clear quality edge over FSV Mainz 05. Their potent attack faces a Mainz defense that has struggled, suggesting Bayern can control the game tempo and create multiple chances. Mainz’s recent form and defensive vulnerabilities hint at a tough outing away from home.

Bayern’s home pressing and offensive firepower dominate tactical matchups
Mainz’s defensive lapses offer Bayern set-piece and open-play opportunities
Game likely leans towards a high-scoring, fast-paced encounter

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

BAY 4-2-3-1 · MAI 5-4-1

BAY · 4-2-3-1 5-4-1 · MAI

9 Kane ⚽

Subs used · BAY

61'

Davies ↑ ·

Ito ↓

61'

Pavlovic ↑ ·

Goretzka ↓

61'

Laimer ↑ ·

Bischof ↓

73'

Jackson ↑ ·

Min-Jae ↓

Subs used · MAI

62'

Nordin ↑ ·

Kawasaki ↓

78'

Weiper ↑ ·

Hollerbach ↓

📊 Statistics

BAY 2 – 2 MAI

85%

Possession (%)

15%

4.24

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.60

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

91%

Pass Accuracy (%)

59%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 2 – 2

L. Karl

Assist · S. Gnabry · 1–0

⚽

29'

45'

⚽

K. Potulski

Assist · W. Boving · 1–1

Half-time · 1 – 1

50'

▮

Danny da Costa

Yellow Card

A. Davies ↓ · H. Ito ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

61'

A. Pavlovic ↓ · L. Goretzka ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

K. Laimer ↓ · T. Bischof ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

61'

62'

⇄

A. Nordin ↓ · S. Kawasaki ↑

Substitution 1

67'

⚽

Lee Jae-Sung

Assist · S. Bell · 1–2

N. Jackson ↓ · Kim Min-Jae ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

73'

Konrad Laimer

Yellow Card

▮

77'

78'

⇄

N. Weiper ↓ · B. Hollerbach ↑

Substitution 2

Alphonso Davies

Yellow Card

▮

83'

86'

▮

Kacper Potulski

Yellow Card

H. Kane (P)

Penalty · 2–2

⚽

87'

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Bayern München and FSV Mainz 05 drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 85% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 4.24 to 0.60. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 5, 11 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Karl (29'), K. Potulski (45'), Lee Jae-Sung (67'), H. Kane (87').

Model audit for this match: of 14 graded markets, 7 landed and 7 missed, for a net +14.19 units (Brier 0.227).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

14 · 7 W · 7 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	2.00	—	53%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Over 3.5	1.68	—	59%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
Under 3.5	2.38	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.85	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	12.74	—	11%	Cashed	+11.74	Cashed
Double Chance X2	8.41	—	14%	Cashed	+7.41	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.03	—	97%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Home Win	1.13	—	86%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.08	—	91%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.25	—	78%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Under 2.5	4.33	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	10.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	26.00	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	15.50	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 14 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 7 L	+14.19u	+101% ROI

Match Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 December 14, 2025 — Result and Stats

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled