This matchup features two teams with similar overall strength and recent mixed form, but Freiburg’s home advantage and slightly better defensive shape suggest a modest edge. Both sides have shown the ability to score and concede regularly, pointing to a balanced game with a good chance of goals at both ends. The market prices reflect a competitive contest, with the home win slightly favored. Our model leans towards a home victory or draw, with a moderate probability of both teams scoring. Totals around 2.5 goals appear reasonable, with some value in the under 2.5 goals market given the defensive tendencies and pace of play.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
FRE 4-2-3-1 · HOF 4-2-3-1📊 Statistics
FRE 1 – 1 HOF42%
Possession (%)
58%
1.31
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
2.45
6
Total Shots
15
1
Shots on Target
4
3
Shots off Target
3
6
Shots Inside Box
11
6
Corner Kicks
8
1
Offsides
2
9
Fouls
15
69%
Pass Accuracy (%)
78%
2
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
0
⏱ Match events
15 · 1 – 1Lukas Kübler
Assist · Junior Adamu · 1–0
3'
13'
⚽
Fisnik Asllani
Assist · Vladimír Coufal · 1–1
Philipp Treu ↓ · Lukas Kübler ↑
Substitution 1
38'
Half-time · 1 – 1
Jordy Makengo
Yellow Card
48'
45+6'
▮
Arthur Chaves
Yellow Card
59'
⇄
Muhammed Damar ↓ · Alexander Prass ↑
Substitution 1
Derry Scherhant ↓ · Vincenzo Grifo ↑
Substitution 2
64'
Igor Matanović ↓ · Junior Adamu ↑
Substitution 3
64'
73'
⇄
Tim Lemperle ↓ · Andrej Kramarić ↑
Substitution 2
73'
⇄
Grischa Prömel ↓ · Leon Avdullahu ↑
Substitution 3
Patrick Osterhage
Yellow Card
80'
Lucas Höler ↓ · Eren Dinkçi ↑
Substitution 4
84'
Max Rosenfelder ↓ · Jan-Niklas Beste ↑
Substitution 5
84'
85'
⇄
Ihlas Bebou ↓ · Fisnik Asllani ↑
Substitution 4
85'
⇄
Umut Tohumcu ↓ · Wouter Burger ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 1
Match recap
SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–1.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 78% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.45 to 1.31. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 6, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: Lukas Kübler (3'), Fisnik Asllani (13').
Model audit for this match: of 9 graded markets, 6 landed and 3 missed, for a net +2.63 units (Brier 0.195).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
9 · 6 W · 3 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 1.55 | — | 65% | Cashed | +0.55 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 2.41 | — | 42% | Cashed | +1.41 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.42 | — | 71% | Cashed | +0.42 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.72 | — | 58% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.19 | — | 85% | Cashed | +0.19 | Cashed |
| Away Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.26 | — | 80% | Cashed | +0.26 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 2.33 | — | 44% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 3.80 | — | 27% | Cashed | +2.80 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 3.20 | — | 29% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 9 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 6 W · 3 L | +2.63u | +29% ROI |