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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › 1. FC Köln — 1899 Hoffenheim

1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
Home · last 5 W L D L
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug · 13:30
3:2
Full-time
1899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim
L L W L L Away · last 5
Referee F. Badstubner
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 60% · book 1.61 ✗
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 40% · book 2.42 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 37% · book 2.55 ✗
Total goals
5
3 · 2
xG (open play)
1.71 – 1.75
Δ −0.04
Possession
41% – 59%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 2.95 — +1.7% better than the market.

With limited recent form data, this Bundesliga clash leans towards a balanced contest. The odds suggest a moderately open game with a slight edge to goals, hinting at a lively pace. Home advantage could provide Köln with a pressing edge, while Hoffenheim may rely on structured defense and quick transitions. Expect tactical discipline and a competitive midfield battle shaping the match flow.

  • Home momentum might spark early pressure
  • Away side’s compact block could limit chances
  • Moderate goal environment suggests careful buildup

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 2.95 ✓ Cashed
AI 34% Implied 34% +1.95u
+195%
ROI on stake

Lineups

KOL 4-3-3 · HOF 4-2-2-2
KOL · 4-3-3 4-2-2-2 · HOF 1 Schwäbe 17 Castro-Montes 22 Simpson-Pusey 24 Lochoshvili 14 Mensah 23 Okon-Engstler 5 Krauß 8 Bergmann Jóhannesson 29 Thielmann 9 Ache 10 El Mala ⚽ 1 Baumann 34 Coufal 5 Kabak ⚽ 21 Hajdari 13 Bernardo 7 Avdullahu 18 Burger 8 Wimmer 14 Daghim ⚽ 20 Conté 10 Hložek
Subs used · KOL
65' Maina ↑ · El Mala ↓
65' Skhiri ↑ · Okon-Engstler ↓
66' Dallinga ↑ · Ache ↓
90' Bulter ↑ · Krauss ↓
90+3' Schmied ↑ · Castro-Montes ↓
Subs used · HOF
53' Hranac ↑ · Bernardo ↓
53' Moerstedt ↑ · Hlozek ↓
71' De Cat ↑ · Wimmer ↓
87' Kramaric ↑ · Daghim ↓
87' Rots ↑ · Hajdari ↓

Statistics

KOL 3 – 2 HOF
41%
Possession (%)
59%
1.71
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.75
18
Total Shots
15
6
Shots on Target
4
7
Shots off Target
7
13
Shots Inside Box
8
6
Corner Kicks
7
11
Fouls
14
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
0
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

18 · 3 – 2
27'
⚽
A. Daghim
Assist · B. Conte · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
S. El Mala
1–1
⚽
51'
53'
⇄
R. Hranac ↓ · Bernardo ↑
Substitution 1
53'
⇄
M. Moerstedt ↓ · A. Hlozek ↑
Substitution 2
57'
⚽
M. Moerstedt (P)
Penalty · Assist · M. Moerstedt · 1–2
L. Maina ↓ · S. El Mala ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
65'
E. Skhiri ↓ · P. Okon-Engstler ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
65'
T. Dallinga ↓ · R. Ache ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
66'
67'
⚽
O. Kabak
Assist · V. Coufal · 1–3
71'
⇄
N. De Cat ↓ · P. Wimmer ↑
Substitution 3
T. Dallinga
Assist · L. Maina · 2–3
⚽
72'
T. Dallinga
3–3
⚽
82'
83'
▮
O. Kabak
Yellow Card
87'
⇄
A. Kramaric ↓ · A. Daghim ↑
Substitution 4
87'
⇄
M. Rots ↓ · A. Hajdari ↑
Substitution 5
M. Bulter ↓ · T. Krauss ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90'
J. Schmied ↓ · A. Castro-Montes ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+3'
90+4'
▮
M. Moerstedt
Yellow Card
Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

1. FC Köln beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball.

On the scoresheet: A. Daghim (27'), S. El Mala (51'), O. Kabak (67'), T. Dallinga (72'), T. Dallinga (82').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.65 units (Brier 0.189).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.61 1.62 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.42 2.30 40% Cashed +1.42 Cashed
BTTS No 2.55 2.62 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.38 2.50 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.28 2.23 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.20 2.26 34% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.72 1.68 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.95 2.90 34% Cashed +1.95 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.60 1.62 60% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.48 1.44 63% Cashed +0.48 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.52 1.49 61% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.40 1.40 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.03 94% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Under 0.5 15.00 16.95 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.15 1.11 81% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.90 5.00 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.63 3.68 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.65u −16% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
KOL – HOF @ 2.95
+1.7%
Edge
Forecast →