SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen 4:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 4.33 — +12.0% better than the market.

With limited recent form and strength data, this Bundesliga opener between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen promises a balanced contest. The odds suggest a moderately open game with a slight lean towards both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals, hinting at a lively pace. Home advantage could offer Freiburg a pressing edge, while Bremen may rely on quick transitions to challenge the hosts' defense.

Home momentum may be key in early stages
Both sides likely to seek attacking opportunities
Moderate goal environment expected

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 4.33 ✗ Lost

AI 26% Implied 23% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

FRE 4-2-3-1 · WER 4-3-3

FRE · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · WER

31 Matanović ⚽

Subs used · FRE

46'

Irie ↑ ·

Beste ↓

69'

Rosenfelder ↑ ·

Lienhart ↓

69'

Treu ↑ ·

Kubler ↓

73'

Holer ↑ ·

Matanovic ↓

80'

Goto ↑ ·

Suzuki ↓

Subs used · WER

46'

Stalmach ↑ ·

Lynen ↓

61'

Musah ↑ ·

Njinmah ↓

61'

Itten ↑ ·

Fullkrug ↓

85'

Dinkci ↑ ·

Reis ↓

85'

Covic ↑ ·

Grull ↓

Statistics

FRE 4 – 1 WER

53%

Possession (%)

47%

1.94

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.48

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

17 · 4 – 1

Y. Suzuki

Assist · J. Beste · 1–0

⚽

29'

I. Matanovic

Assist · M. Ginter · 2–0

⚽

45'

Half-time · 2 – 0

C. Irie ↓ · J. Beste ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

⇄

D. Stalmach ↓ · S. Lynen ↑

Substitution 1

Y. Suzuki

3–0

⚽

48'

▮

L. Reis

Yellow Card

Y. Suzuki

Assist · I. Matanovic · 4–0

⚽

55'

61'

⇄

S. Musah ↓ · J. Njinmah ↑

Substitution 2

61'

⇄

C. Itten ↓ · N. Fullkrug ↑

Substitution 3

M. Rosenfelder ↓ · P. Lienhart ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

P. Treu ↓ · L. Kubler ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

L. Holer ↓ · I. Matanovic ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

73'

76'

⚽

D. Stalmach

Assist · M. Grull · 4–1

K. Goto ↓ · Y. Suzuki ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

80'

85'

⇄

E. Dinkci ↓ · L. Reis ↑

Substitution 4

85'

⇄

P. Covic ↓ · M. Grull ↑

Substitution 5

K. Goto

Yellow Card

▮

88'

Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

SC Freiburg beat Werder Bremen 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.94 to 0.48. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 9, 5 on target. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.94 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: Y. Suzuki (29'), I. Matanovic (45'), Y. Suzuki (48'), Y. Suzuki (55'), D. Stalmach (76').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.17 units (Brier 0.166).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.91	1.91	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.73	1.73	55%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.10	2.10	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.62	1.63	58%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
BTTS No	2.20	2.20	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.74	2.75	34%	Cashed	+1.74	Cashed
Home Win	1.84	1.84	49%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.28	3.28	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.42	1.41	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.33	4.33	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.37	1.37	49%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	1.02	92%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Under 0.5	12.00	12.99	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.22	1.22	77%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.04	4.33	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.54	3.70	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.29	1.22	71%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.17u	−25% ROI

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen 4:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled