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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › SC Freiburg — FC Schalke 04

SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
Home · last 5 W W W D W
Kick-off
Sun 11 Oct · 15:30
2:1
Full-time
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
L D W D L Away · last 5
Europa-Park-Stadion · Freiburg Referee Martin Petersen
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 46% · book 2.36 ✗
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 64% · book 1.61 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 46% · book 2.20 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.22 – 0.38
Δ +0.84
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.36 — +8.8% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.36 ✗ Lost
AI 46% Implied 42% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

FRE 4-2-3-1 · SCH 3-4-2-1
FRE · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · SCH 1 Backhaus 29 Treu 28 Ginter 3 Lienhart 33 Makengo 8 Eggestein ⚽ 16 Engelhardt 19 Beste 14 Suzuki 7 Scherhant 31 Matanović 1 Karius 39 Wöber 25 Katić 4 Kuruçay 17 Gantenbein 23 El-Faouzi 13 Tanaka 8 Gosens 19 Karaman ⚽ 20 Adamu 9 Sylla
Subs used · FRE
65' Höler ↑ · Matanovic ↓
69' Irié ↑ · Beste ↓
69' Goto ↑ · Engelhardt ↓
83' Kübler ↑ · Treu ↓
83' Grifo ↑ · Scherhant ↓
Subs used · SCH
69' Schallenberg ↑ · Tanaka ↓
69' Džeko ↑ · Adamu ↓
79' Aouchiche ↑ · Gantenbein ↓
79' Becker ↑ · Wöber ↓
79' Hee-Chan ↑ · Sylla ↓

Statistics

FRE 2 – 1 SCH
51%
Possession (%)
49%
1.22
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.38
10
Total Shots
5
4
Shots on Target
1
3
Shots off Target
1
7
Shots Inside Box
5
7
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
5
11
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

17 · 2 – 1
Maximilian Eggestein
1–0
⚽
10'
30'
⚽
Kenan Karaman
Assist · Adrian Tobias Gantenbein · 1–1
Half-time · 1 – 1
Yuito Suzuki
Yellow Card
▮
49'
Matthias Ginter
Yellow Card
▮
57'
Yuito Suzuki
Red Card
▮
64'
Lucas Höler ↓ · Igor Matanovic ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
65'
Cyriaque Irié ↓ · Jan-Niklas Beste ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
69'
Keisuke Goto ↓ · Yannick Engelhardt ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
69'
69'
⇄
Ron Schallenberg ↓ · Satoshi Tanaka ↑
Substitution 1
69'
⇄
Edin Džeko ↓ · Junior Chukwubuike Adamu ↑
Substitution 2
79'
⇄
Adil Aouchiche ↓ · Adrian Tobias Gantenbein ↑
Substitution 3
79'
⇄
Timo Becker ↓ · Maximilian Wöber ↑
Substitution 4
79'
⇄
Hwang Hee-Chan ↓ · Moussa Sylla ↑
Substitution 5
Lukas Kübler ↓ · Philipp Treu ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
83'
Vincenzo Grifo ↓ · Derry Lionel Scherhant ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
83'
Keisuke Goto
Assist · Vincenzo Grifo · 2–1
⚽
85'
87'
▮
Hwang Hee-Chan
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

SC Freiburg beat FC Schalke 04 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.22 to 0.38. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 10 shots to 5, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 2.

On the scoresheet: Maximilian Eggestein (10'), Kenan Karaman (30'), Keisuke Goto (85'). Yuito Suzuki was sent off in the 64' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.06 units (Brier 0.099).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.36 2.25 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.61 1.69 64% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
BTTS No 2.20 2.20 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.61 1.63 54% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.24 2.12 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.45 2.57 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.56 1.50 68% Cashed +0.56 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.60 4.50 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.17 1.18 86% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.57 1.67 54% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.24 1.28 64% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Under 0.5 15.00 12.99 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 93% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.16 1.17 77% Cashed +0.16 Cashed
Draw 3.99 3.85 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.90 4.74 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.77 3.50 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −6.06u −36% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
FRE – SCH @ 2.36
+8.8%
Edge
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