Crystal Palace vs Arsenal — Preview, Lineups & AI Prediction

AI preview · 90 sec read

AI sees no standout edge in this market — odds and probabilities line up.

Arsenal enter Selhurst Park with a clear quality edge and strong recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Crystal Palace's home momentum is limited by a shaky defense and lackluster recent results, while Arsenal's attacking threat and pressing game could exploit these weaknesses. Expect a tactical battle with Arsenal likely controlling the tempo and creating more chances.

Arsenal's offensive edge against Palace's defense
Palace's recent form struggles at home
Potential for Arsenal to dictate pace and pressure

⚖ Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh

Market	Best bookmaker	Fair (consensus)	AI prob.	Edge
Away Win	1.84	1.75	60%	+11.2%	Watch
Double Chance X2	1.26	1.22	83%	+4.9%	Watch
Over 2.5	1.72	1.67	58%	0.0%	Pass
Over 0.5	1.03	1.02	94%	−2.8%	Pass
Under 2.5	2.31	2.25	42%	−3.4%	Pass
Over 1.5	1.20	1.18	80%	−4.0%	Pass
Under 3.5	1.50	1.44	64%	−4.1%	Pass
BTTS No	2.30	2.21	41%	−4.6%	Pass
Draw	4.16	4.00	23%	−5.1%	Pass
BTTS Yes	1.62	1.63	59%	−5.2%	Pass
Over 3.5	2.63	2.62	36%	−5.2%	Pass
Under 1.5	4.50	4.50	20%	−10.1%	Pass
Under 0.5	15.50	15.00	6%	−12.8%	Pass
Double Chance 1X	2.08	2.03	40%	−17.8%	Pass
Home Win	4.33	4.27	17%	−27.6%	Pass

Away Win

book 1.84 · fair 1.75 · 60%

+11.2%

Watch

Double Chance X2

book 1.26 · fair 1.22 · 83%

+4.9%

Watch

Over 2.5

book 1.72 · fair 1.67 · 58%

0.0%

Pass

Over 0.5

book 1.03 · fair 1.02 · 94%

−2.8%

Pass

Under 2.5

book 2.31 · fair 2.25 · 42%

−3.4%

Pass

Over 1.5

book 1.20 · fair 1.18 · 80%

−4.0%

Pass

Under 3.5

book 1.50 · fair 1.44 · 64%

−4.1%

Pass

BTTS No

book 2.30 · fair 2.21 · 41%

−4.6%

Pass

Draw

book 4.16 · fair 4.00 · 23%

−5.1%

Pass

BTTS Yes

book 1.62 · fair 1.63 · 59%

−5.2%

Pass

Over 3.5

book 2.63 · fair 2.62 · 36%

−5.2%

Pass

Under 1.5

book 4.50 · fair 4.50 · 20%

−10.1%

Pass

Under 0.5

book 15.50 · fair 15.00 · 6%

−12.8%

Pass

Double Chance 1X

book 2.08 · fair 2.03 · 40%

−17.8%

Pass

Home Win

book 4.33 · fair 4.27 · 17%

−27.6%

Pass

Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

⚔ Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match

1.08

Goals Scored

1.86

1.32

Goals Conceded

0.70

1.51

Expected Goals (xG)

1.68

3.76

Shots on Target

4.84

4.22

Corners

5.73

46.05

Possession (%)

56.35

80.06

Efficiency index

109.61

76.21

Adjusted index

133.65

Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date

OFF · home

DEF · home

100

OFF · away

DEF · away

100

Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers

⚠️ Sharp move on Home Win · 4.03 ↑ 4.51 (+12%)

Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

①

Crystal Palace wins when scoring first

①

Arsenal wins when scoring first

100%

⚽

Crystal Palace BTTS rate · last 10

60%

⚽

Arsenal BTTS rate · last 10

30%

↑

Crystal Palace Over 2.5 · last 10

80%

↑

Arsenal Over 2.5 · last 10

30%

↩

Crystal Palace comeback rate · last 10

25%

↩

Arsenal comeback rate · last 10

—

🔥 Goal timing

Crystal Palace · last 10 at home

0–15 0%

16–30 11%

31–45 33%

46–60 0%

61–75 0%

76–90 56%

Arsenal · last 10 away

0–15 11%

16–30 22%

31–45 11%

46–60 17%

61–75 22%

76–90 17%

Balanced — goals spread evenly across the match.

Top scorers

J. Mateta

CRY · Attacker

11 G · 0.45 g/90

V. Gyökeres

ARS · Attacker

14 G · 0.56 g/90

Gabriel Martinelli

ARS · Attacker

14 G · 0.57 g/90