P
Prognosist
P
⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football England Premier League Aston Villa — Liverpool
England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 W L L D W
Kick-off
Fri 15 May · 19:00
4:2
Full-time
Liverpool
Liverpool
W W L D L Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee C. Kavanagh
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 68% · book 1.44
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 51% · book 2.33
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 41% · book 2.66
Total goals
6
4 · 2
xG (open play)
1.91 – 1.52
Δ +0.39
Possession
45% – 55%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.69 — +9.1% better than the market.

Aston Villa hosts Liverpool in a clash where the visitors hold a clear quality edge, boosted by a sharper attack. Liverpool's recent winning streak contrasts with Villa's mixed form, suggesting a pressing edge for the away side. However, Villa's solid defensive setup at home could keep the game tight, with under 3.5 goals likely given the cautious pace hinted by odds.

  • Liverpool's offensive threat vs Villa's compact defense
  • Villa's home momentum despite recent inconsistency
  • Moderate tempo favoring a controlled, tactical battle

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.69
AI 65% Implied 59% Value
+9.1%
Expected value

Lineups

AST 4-2-3-1 · LIV 4-2-3-1
Subs used · AST
46' Barkley ↑ · Lindelof
85' Maatsen ↑ · Buendia
90' Sancho ↑ · McGinn
90' Luiz ↑ · Tielemans
Subs used · LIV
66' Chiesa ↑ · Gomez
66' Wirtz ↑ · Gravenberch
74' Salah ↑ · Gakpo

📊 Statistics

AST 42 LIV
45%
Possession (%)
55%
1.91
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.52
14
Total Shots
15
9
Shots on Target
5
2
Shots off Target
7
9
Shots Inside Box
9
4
Corner Kicks
9
2
Offsides
3
12
Fouls
9
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
87%
3
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

17 · 4 – 2
M. Cash
Yellow Card
39'
M. Rogers
Assist · L. Digne · 1–0
42'
Half-time · 1 – 0
R. Barkley ↓ · V. Lindelof ↑
Substitution 1
46'
O. Watkins
Yellow Card
45+3'
52'
V. van Dijk
Assist · D. Szoboszlai · 1–1
O. Watkins
Assist · M. Rogers · 2–1
57'
62'
J. Gomez
Yellow Card
66'
F. Chiesa ↓ · J. Gomez ↑
Substitution 1
66'
F. Wirtz ↓ · R. Gravenberch ↑
Substitution 2
J. McGinn
Yellow Card
66'
O. Watkins
3–1
73'
74'
M. Salah ↓ · C. Gakpo ↑
Substitution 3
I. Maatsen ↓ · E. Buendia ↑
Substitution 2
85'
J. McGinn
Assist · O. Watkins · 4–1
89'
J. Sancho ↓ · J. McGinn ↑
Substitution 3
90'
Douglas Luiz ↓ · Y. Tielemans ↑
Substitution 4
90'
90+2'
V. van Dijk
Assist · D. Szoboszlai · 4–2
Full-time · 4 – 2

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.44 1.41 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.33 2.40 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.66 2.32 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.15 2.15 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.75 1.79 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.80 2.75 32% Cashed +1.80 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.61 1.53 51% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.25 2.15 25% Cashed +1.25 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.44 1.40 75% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.00 4.20 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.81 1.73 53% Cashed +0.81 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.60 1.57 57% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
Home Win 3.02 2.89 25% Cashed +2.02 Cashed
Under 0.5 18.00 12.99 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 94% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Draw 3.91 3.50 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.22 1.22 77% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −1.67u −10% ROI

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample
AL
@alex
ROI +13.0%
1 week ago
Premier League Fr 15 May · 19:00
Aston Villa Aston Villa
4 : 2 final
Liverpool Liverpool
Double Chance Home/Draw @ 1.60
Stake 90 coins
Payout 144 credited
P/L +54 +60% vs stake
Won
Best bet of the night · Under 3.5
AST – LIV @ 1.69
+9.1%
Edge
Forecast →