Match Aston Villa vs Sunderland April 19, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.98 — +13.7% better than the market.

Aston Villa arrives at Villa Park with a clear quality edge and home momentum, reflected in their stronger offensive output against Sunderland's leaky defense. Their recent form shows resilience, while Sunderland's solid but less potent attack may struggle to break down Villa's compact block. The balanced goal market odds suggest a moderate tempo, favoring a controlled game with Villa pressing for dominance.

Home side's attacking edge vs away defense
Villa's home form and tactical solidity
Moderate pace hints at a measured contest

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.98 ✗ Lost

AI 57% Implied 51% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AST 4-2-3-1 · SUN 4-2-3-1

AST · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · SUN

11 Watkins ⚽

Subs used · AST

70'

Digne ↑ ·

Maatsen ↓

70'

Buendia ↑ ·

Barkley ↓

80'

Abraham ↑ ·

Watkins ↓

80'

Sancho ↑ ·

McGinn ↓

Subs used · SUN

63'

Talbi ↑ ·

Rigg ↓

63'

Ballard ↑ ·

Alderete ↓

63'

Hume ↑ ·

Mandava ↓

84'

Isidor ↑ ·

Brobbey ↓

📊 Statistics

AST 4 – 3 SUN

50%

Possession (%)

50%

2.67

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.76

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 4 – 3

O. Watkins

Assist · J. McGinn · 1–0

⚽

C. Rigg

Assist · N. Sadiki · 1–1

O. Watkins

Assist · I. Maatsen · 2–1

⚽

36'

Half-time · 2 – 1

M. Rogers

Assist · O. Watkins · 3–1

⚽

46'

63'

⇄

C. Talbi ↓ · C. Rigg ↑

Substitution 1

63'

⇄

D. Ballard ↓ · O. Alderete ↑

Substitution 2

63'

⇄

T. Hume ↓ · R. Mandava ↑

Substitution 3

66'

▮

Noah Sadiki

Yellow Card

L. Digne ↓ · I. Maatsen ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

70'

E. Buendia ↓ · R. Barkley ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

T. Abraham ↓ · O. Watkins ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

J. Sancho ↓ · J. McGinn ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

80'

84'

⇄

W. Isidor ↓ · B. Brobbey ↑

Substitution 4

86'

⚽

T. Hume

3–2

87'

⚽

W. Isidor

Assist · E. Le Fee · 3–3

T. Abraham

Assist · L. Digne · 4–3

⚽

90'

90+5'

▮

Nordi Mukiele

Yellow Card

Amadou Onana

Yellow Card

▮

90+8'

▮

Daniel Ballard

Yellow Card

Full-time · 4 – 3

Match recap

Aston Villa beat Sunderland 4–3 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.67 to 1.76. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 10, 7 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: O. Watkins (2'), C. Rigg (9'), O. Watkins (36'), M. Rogers (46'), T. Hume (86'), W. Isidor (87'), T. Abraham (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.16 units (Brier 0.188).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.98	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.72	—	64%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
BTTS No	1.92	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	45%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.98	—	43%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.27	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.75	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.36	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.18	—	87%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.27	—	64%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	90%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Draw	4.05	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.31	—	68%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.40	—	22%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Away Win	5.58	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.04	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.16u	−19% ROI