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Home › England › Premier League › Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa 1:1: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
Home · last 5 W W D L D
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 13:00
1:1
Full-time
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
L L D W W Away · last 5
Wembley Stadium · London Referee M. Salisbury
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 54% · book 1.92 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 49% · book 2.12 ✗
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 46% · book 2.02 ✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.20 – 0.98
Δ +0.22
Possession
41% – 59%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.52 — +7.8% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.52 ✓ Cashed
AI 71% Implied 66% +0.52u
+52%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NOT 4-2-3-1 · AST 4-2-3-1
NOT · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · AST 26 Sels 34 Aina 31 Milenković 5 Murillo 3 Williams ⚽ 6 Sangaré 8 Anderson 21 Hutchinson 10 Gibbs-White 7 Hudson-Odoi 19 Jesus 40 Bizot 2 Cash 3 Lindelöf 14 Torres 12 Digne 24 Onana 8 Tielemans 7 McGinn 6 Barkley 27 Rogers 11 Watkins
Subs used · NOT
65' Wood ↑ · Hutchinson ↓
84' Dominguez ↑ · Gibbs-White ↓
89' Yates ↑ · Jesus ↓
89' Ndoye ↑ · Aina ↓
Subs used · AST
77' Luiz ↑ · Barkley ↓
78' Maatsen ↑ · Digne ↓
78' Buendia ↑ · Rogers ↓
87' Abraham ↑ · Watkins ↓
90+1' Garcia ↑ · Cash ↓

Statistics

NOT 1 – 1 AST
41%
Possession (%)
59%
1.20
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.98
15
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
5
6
Shots off Target
7
9
Shots Inside Box
8
7
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
2
15
Fouls
10
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
88%
2
Yellow Cards
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

15 · 1 – 1
11'
▮
Matty Cash
Yellow Card
23'
⚽
Murillo
Own goal · 0–1
N. Williams
Assist · C. Hudson-Odoi · 1–1
⚽
38'
Omari Hutchinson
Yellow Card
▮
45'
Half-time · 1 – 1
Murillo
Yellow Card
▮
63'
C. Wood ↓ · O. Hutchinson ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
65'
67'
▮
John McGinn
Yellow Card
77'
⇄
Douglas Luiz ↓ · R. Barkley ↑
Substitution 1
78'
⇄
I. Maatsen ↓ · L. Digne ↑
Substitution 2
78'
⇄
E. Buendia ↓ · M. Rogers ↑
Substitution 3
N. Dominguez ↓ · M. Gibbs-White ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
84'
87'
⇄
T. Abraham ↓ · O. Watkins ↑
Substitution 4
R. Yates ↓ · Igor Jesus ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
89'
D. Ndoye ↓ · O. Aina ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
89'
90+1'
⇄
A. Garcia ↓ · M. Cash ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Murillo (23'), N. Williams (38').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.13 units (Brier 0.152).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.92 — 54% Cashed +0.92 Cashed
BTTS No 2.12 — 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.02 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.75 — 51% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.00 — 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.71 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.94 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.52 — 71% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Away Win 2.81 — 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.70 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.49 — 56% Cashed +0.49 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.35 — 75% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Under 0.5 11.00 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.07 — 91% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.32 — 71% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Draw 3.45 — 27% Cashed +2.45 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.40 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.13u −18% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
NOT – AST @ 1.52
+7.8%
Edge
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