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Home › England › Premier League › Crystal Palace — Newcastle

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle 2:1: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
Home · last 5 L D L D L
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 13:00
2:1
Full-time
Newcastle
Newcastle
L W D W L Away · last 5
Selhurst Park · London Referee A. Madley
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 51% · book 2.33 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 44% · book 2.33 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 47% · book 2.18 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
2.34 – 1.13
Δ +1.21
Possession
42% – 58%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.40 — +6.9% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.40 ✗ Lost
AI 76% Implied 71% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CRY 3-4-3 · NEW 4-5-1
CRY · 3-4-3 4-5-1 · NEW 1 Henderson 26 Richards 5 Lacroix 23 Canvot 2 Muñoz 8 Lerma 19 Hughes 3 Mitchell 11 Johnson 22 Larsen 10 Pino 32 Ramsdale 21 Livramento 12 Thiaw 4 Botman 3 Hall 23 Murphy 67 Miley 8 Tonali 7 Joelinton 10 Gordon 18 Osula ⚽
Subs used · CRY
64' Sarr ↑ · Johnson ↓
64' Wharton ↑ · Hughes ↓
65' Mateta ↑ · S. Larsen ↓
76' Kamada ↑ · Pino ↓
90+6' Sosa ↑ · Mitchell ↓
Subs used · NEW
71' Barnes ↑ · Gordon ↓
84' Ramsey ↑ · Joelinton ↓
84' Woltemade ↑ · Osula ↓
90+5' Wissa ↑ · Murphy ↓
90+5' Elanga ↑ · Tonali ↓

Statistics

CRY 2 – 1 NEW
42%
Possession (%)
58%
2.34
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.13
11
Total Shots
7
5
Shots on Target
3
3
Shots off Target
1
9
Shots Inside Box
5
2
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
0
17
Fouls
12
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
0
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

16 · 2 – 1
43'
⚽
W. Osula
Assist · L. Miley · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
I. Sarr ↓ · B. Johnson ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
64'
A. Wharton ↓ · W. Hughes ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
64'
J. Mateta ↓ · J. S. Larsen ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
65'
68'
▮
Malick Thiaw
Yellow Card
71'
⇄
H. Barnes ↓ · A. Gordon ↑
Substitution 1
74'
▮
Joelinton
Yellow Card
D. Kamada ↓ · Y. Pino ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
76'
J. Mateta
Assist · T. Mitchell · 1–1
⚽
80'
84'
⇄
J. Ramsey ↓ · Joelinton ↑
Substitution 2
84'
⇄
N. Woltemade ↓ · W. Osula ↑
Substitution 3
J. Mateta (P)
Penalty · 2–1
⚽
90'
90+3'
▮
Aaron Ramsdale
Yellow Card
90+5'
⇄
Y. Wissa ↓ · J. Murphy ↑
Substitution 4
90+5'
⇄
A. Elanga ↓ · S. Tonali ↑
Substitution 5
B. Sosa ↓ · T. Mitchell ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+6'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Crystal Palace beat Newcastle 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.34 to 1.13. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 11 shots to 7, 5 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: W. Osula (43'), J. Mateta (80'), J. Mateta (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.58 units (Brier 0.221).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.33 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.33 — 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.18 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.79 — 53% Cashed +0.79 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.80 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.63 — 56% Cashed +0.63 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.68 — 49% Cashed +0.68 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.34 — 24% Cashed +1.34 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.40 — 76% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.47 — 69% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.85 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.33 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 — 93% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.25 — 76% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Under 0.5 13.40 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.64 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.21 — 24% Cashed +2.21 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.58u −15% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
CRY – NEW @ 1.40
+6.9%
Edge
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