Match Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen April 4, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

NEC Nijmegen enters this clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Excelsior’s defensive frailties and poor home momentum contrast with NEC’s sharper attacking threat and steadier results. Expect NEC to press their advantage with a more dynamic offense against a vulnerable backline.

NEC’s offensive edge challenges Excelsior’s shaky defense
Home side’s recent slump limits their control
Moderate pace expected, favoring NEC’s sharper transitions

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

EXC 5-4-1 · NIJ 3-4-2-1

EXC · 5-4-1 3-4-2-1 · NIJ

11 Regt

📊 Statistics

EXC 0 – 2 NIJ

45%

Possession (%)

55%

0.72

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.32

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

76%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

NEC Nijmegen won 2–0 away at Excelsior. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.32 to 0.72. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.96 units (Brier 0.154).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.01	—	57%	Cashed	+1.01	Cashed
BTTS No	2.70	—	38%	Cashed	+1.70	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.60	—	39%	Cashed	+1.60	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.66	—	60%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.30	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.87	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.60	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.36	—	80%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.53	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.50	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.51	—	57%	Cashed	+0.51	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.50	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.17	—	82%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Draw	4.05	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	19.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.65	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.96u	−17% ROI