Match Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar February 14, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AZ Alkmaar holds a clear quality advantage over Excelsior, reflected in their stronger overall squad and offensive edge. Despite Excelsior's solid recent home form, AZ's potent attack against a less resilient defense suggests they can break through. The home side's defensive solidity might keep the scoreline tight, but AZ's pressing and pace hint at a lively contest with goal opportunities for both.

AZ's offensive firepower vs Excelsior's defense
Excelsior's home momentum and compact block
Potential for an open game given AZ's pressing style

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

EXC 4-3-3 · ALK 4-2-3-1

EXC · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · ALK

11 Regt

📊 Statistics

EXC 1 – 2 ALK

45%

Possession (%)

55%

0.75

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.01

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.99	—	58%	Cashed	+0.99	Cashed
BTTS No	2.48	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.43	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.67	—	59%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.62	—	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.92	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.69	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.32	—	81%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.57	—	63%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.58	—	59%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.48	—	58%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.10	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.22	—	80%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	94%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	4.00	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.85	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.13u	−30% ROI