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Home Netherlands Eredivisie Excelsior — AZ Alkmaar

Predictions Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar February 14, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Excelsior
Excelsior
Home · last 5 D W W D W
Kick-off
Sat 14 Feb · 17:45
1:2
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
W D D D D Away · last 5
Referee Erwin Blank, Netherlands
Home Win · EXC
19%
Best 3.15
Draw
23%
Best 3.55
Away Win · ALK
58%
Best 2.17
Value pick
Away Win
@ 1.99
Fair odds
1.73
book 1.99 · +14.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 58% · EV +14.7%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 57.7%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 23.3%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 19%
Odds 3.85
Show model details
Implied probability 26%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 41.4%
Odds 2.43
Show model details
Implied probability 41.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 36.5%
Odds 2.62
Show model details
Implied probability 38.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 63.5%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds 5.10
Show model details
Implied probability 19.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 80.4%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.2%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.8%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 40.9%
Odds 2.48
Show model details
Implied probability 40.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.1%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0
Probability 19%
Odds 2.69
Show model details
Implied probability 37.2%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 57.7%
Odds 1.48
Show model details
Implied probability 67.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 42.3%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 81%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.