Match AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen January 31, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AZ Alkmaar hosts NEC Nijmegen in a clash where the visitors hold a clear quality edge, suggesting they can challenge strongly despite playing away. NEC's sharper attack against AZ's defense hints at goal-scoring chances, while AZ's home momentum and slightly better recent form add balance. Expect a lively encounter with both sides pressing for control and goals.

NEC's offensive threat vs AZ's defense
AZ's home form and resilience
Moderate pace suggested by goal market odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

ALK 4-3-3 · NIJ 3-4-2-1

ALK · 4-3-3 3-4-2-1 · NIJ

27 Daal

📊 Statistics

ALK 1 – 3 NIJ

48%

Possession (%)

52%

1.39

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.36

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

71%

Pass Accuracy (%)

72%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

NEC Nijmegen won 3–1 away at AZ Alkmaar. At half-time it was 1–2.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 11, 8 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.36 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.50 units (Brier 0.176).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	2.07	—	54%	Cashed	+1.07	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.15	—	49%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.76	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.83	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.10	—	32%	Cashed	+3.10	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.47	—	70%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.08	—	32%	Cashed	+2.08	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.45	—	68%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
BTTS No	2.88	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.27	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.88	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.53	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.15	—	87%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	—	97%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	4.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	6.50	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	23.00	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.50u	−3% ROI