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Home Netherlands Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar — NEC Nijmegen

Predictions AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen January 31, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
Home · last 5 W D D D D
Kick-off
Sat 31 Jan · 15:30
1:3
Full-time
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
D D D L W Away · last 5
AFAS Stadion · Alkmaar Referee Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
Home Win · ALK
46%
Best 1.87
Draw
21%
Best 4.00
Away Win · NIJ
32%
Best 3.72
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 2.07
Fair odds
1.86
book 2.07 · +11.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 54% · EV +11.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (68%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 46.3%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 32.3%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 21.4%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 49.3%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 50.7%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 70%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 30%
Odds 2.88
Show model details
Implied probability 34.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 87.2%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.7%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 12.9%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 3.3%
Odds 23.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 68.4%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 31.6%
Odds 2.88
Show model details
Implied probability 34.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 32.3%
Odds 3.08
Show model details
Implied probability 32.5%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 46.3%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 53.7%
Odds 2.07
Show model details
Implied probability 48.3%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 67.7%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
ALK – NIJ @ 2.07
+11.2%
Edge
Forecast →