Match AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior January 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.91 — +7.6% better than the market.

AZ Alkmaar holds a clear quality edge over Excelsior, boosted by a solid home form and a strong attacking setup facing a less resilient away defense. The home side’s recent momentum and tactical control suggest they will press high and exploit set-piece opportunities. Excelsior’s inconsistent form and defensive vulnerabilities may invite pressure, making a home win likely in a moderately paced game.

Home attacking threat vs away defensive frailty
AZ’s home momentum and compact block
Excelsior’s shaky away form and limited offensive impact

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.91 ✓ Cashed

AI 56% Implied 52% +0.91u

+91%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ALK 4-2-3-1 · EXC 4-4-2

ALK · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · EXC

9 Parrott

📊 Statistics

ALK 1 – 1 EXC

60%

Possession (%)

40%

1.85

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.12

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

77%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.85 to 1.12. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 8, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +2.40 units (Brier 0.237).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.91	—	56%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
BTTS No	2.30	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.68	—	57%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
Over 3.5	1.99	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.10	—	35%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Under 1.5	7.50	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.10	—	92%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Home Win	1.34	—	75%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.40	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.12	—	75%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.91	—	17%	Cashed	+4.91	Cashed
Under 0.5	23.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	—	96%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.13	—	85%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Double Chance X2	3.55	—	25%	Cashed	+2.55	Cashed
Away Win	9.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.70	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+2.40u	+14% ROI