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Home Netherlands Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar — Excelsior

Predictions AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior January 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
Home · last 5 W D D D D
Kick-off
Wed 21 Jan · 17:45
1:1
Full-time
Excelsior
Excelsior
D W W D W Away · last 5
AFAS Stadion · Alkmaar Referee Alex Bos, Netherlands
Home Win · ALK
75%
Best 1.31
Draw
17%
Best 5.58
Away Win · EXC
8%
Best 8.50
Value pick
Under 3.5
@ 1.91
Fair odds
1.77
book 1.91 · +7.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 56% · EV +7.6%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 74.8%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 17.2%
Odds 5.91
Show model details
Implied probability 16.9%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 8%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 56.4%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 43.6%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 35.1%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 15.3%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 64.9%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.3%
Odds 23.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.7%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.7%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 43.4%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 56.6%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 74.8%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 8%
Odds 6.70
Show model details
Implied probability 14.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 92%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 25.3%
Odds 3.55
Show model details
Implied probability 28.2%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
ALK – EXC @ 1.91
+7.6%
Edge
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