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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › AZ Alkmaar — Excelsior

Predictions by Market: AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
Home · last 5 W D D D D
Kick-off
Wed 21 Jan · 17:45
1:1
Full-time
Excelsior
Excelsior
D W W D W Away · last 5
AFAS Stadion(Alkmaar) · Alkmaar Referee Alex Bos, Netherlands

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ALK
75%
Best 1.31
Draw
17%
Best 5.58
Away Win · EXC
8%
Best 8.50
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 7.50
Fair odds
6.52
book 7.50 · +15.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 15% · EV +15.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (85%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 74.8%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 17.2%
Odds 5.91
Show model details
Implied probability 16.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 8%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 56.4%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 43.6%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 35.1%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 15.3%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 64.9%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 4.3%
Odds 23.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.7%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 84.7%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 43.4%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 56.6%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 74.8%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 8%
Odds 6.70
Show model details
Implied probability 14.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 92%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 25.3%
Odds 3.55
Show model details
Implied probability 28.2%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ALK – EXC @ 7.50
+15.0%
Edge
Forecast →