Aston Villa vs Leeds 1:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.91 — +13.3% better than the market.

Aston Villa hold a clear quality edge and home momentum at Villa Park, backed by a solid defensive record that could stifle Leeds' attack. Leeds show signs of resilience but face a pressing challenge against Villa's compact block and efficient counterattacks. The recent form gap favors Villa, suggesting they can control the tempo and limit Leeds' chances.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive threat
Villa's recent winning streak and home comfort
Moderate pace expected with tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.91 ✗ Lost

AI 59% Implied 52% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

AST 4-2-3-1 · LEE 5-4-1

AST · 4-2-3-1 5-4-1 · LEE

11 Watkins

Subs used · AST

61'

Barkley ↑ ·

Onana ↓

61'

Sancho ↑ ·

Bailey ↓

75'

Abraham ↑ ·

Buendia ↓

87'

Bogarde ↑ ·

Luiz ↓

87'

Garcia ↑ ·

Cash ↓

Subs used · LEE

46'

Bijol ↑ ·

Gudmundsson ↓

73'

Nmecha ↑ ·

Aaronson ↓

83'

Longstaff ↑ ·

Stach ↓

Statistics

AST 1 – 1 LEE

67%

Possession (%)

33%

1.39

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.35

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

70%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 1 – 1

31'

⚽

A. Stach

0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

46'

⇄

J. Bijol ↓ · G. Gudmundsson ↑

Substitution 1

R. Barkley ↓ · A. Onana ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

61'

J. Sancho ↓ · L. Bailey ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

62'

▮

Jaka Bijol

Yellow Card

69'

▮

Karl Darlow

Yellow Card

Emiliano Buendía

Yellow Card

▮

73'

⇄

L. Nmecha ↓ · B. Aaronson ↑

Substitution 2

T. Abraham ↓ · E. Buendia ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

79'

▮

Jayden Bogle

Yellow Card

83'

⇄

S. Longstaff ↓ · A. Stach ↑

Substitution 3

L. Bogarde ↓ · Douglas Luiz ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

87'

A. Garcia ↓ · M. Cash ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

87'

T. Abraham

1–1

⚽

88'

90+2'

▮

Ilia Gruev

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Aston Villa and Leeds drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Stach (31'), T. Abraham (88').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.36 units (Brier 0.174).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.91	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.05	—	51%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
BTTS No	2.12	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.79	—	52%	Cashed	+0.79	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.90	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.01	—	41%	Cashed	+1.01	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.25	—	84%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.00	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.40	—	72%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.15	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.38	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.28	—	74%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Draw	3.80	—	24%	Cashed	+2.80	Cashed
Away Win	4.49	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.31	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.36u	−14% ROI

Aston Villa vs Leeds 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled