Napoli vs Chelsea 2:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.20 — +8.0% better than the market.

Napoli vs Chelsea looks like a tight, tactical battle where small moments decide it. Napoli should be comfortable at home and can control phases through patient build-up, but Chelsea arrive in stronger rhythm and look more reliable in transition. With both sides set up to protect the middle and limit clean looks, this match can swing on set pieces, second balls and a single defensive mistake. A draw is a very live outcome, while Chelsea have enough punch to edge it if the game opens up.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 2.20 ✗ Lost

AI 49% Implied 46% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

NAP 3-4-2-1 · CHE 4-2-3-1

NAP · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · CHE

19 Højlund

Statistics

NAP 2 – 3 CHE

46%

Possession (%)

54%

0.98

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.01

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Chelsea won 3–2 away at Napoli. At half-time it was 2–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.01 to 0.98. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 14 graded markets, 7 landed and 7 missed, for a net -1.84 units (Brier 0.231).

Bet recap · markets settled

14 · 7 W · 7 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.02	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.20	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.56	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.39	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.52	—	66%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	93%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.53	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.30	—	74%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.92	—	50%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Away Win	2.68	—	36%	Cashed	+1.68	Cashed
Home Win	2.76	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.73	—	51%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.95	—	36%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.99	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 14 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 7 L	−1.84u	−13% ROI

Napoli vs Chelsea 2:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Bet recap · markets settled