Match Benfica vs Real Madrid January 28, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Benfica host Real Madrid in a tie that pits a disciplined home side against an away team arriving with relentless momentum. Madrid should have the clearer routes to goal through sharper transitions and more consistent chance creation, but Benfica can stay competitive if they keep their shape and make set pieces count. Expect spells of Madrid control, with Benfica trying to slow the game and strike on counters. Goals look likely, with the visitors slightly favoured to get the job done.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

BEN 4-2-3-1 · REA 4-3-3

BEN · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · REA

14 Pavlidis

📊 Statistics

BEN 4 – 2 REA

33%

Possession (%)

67%

2.99

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.50

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

77%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Benfica beat Real Madrid 4–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.99 to 1.50. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 16, 12 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 8 landed and 7 missed, for a net +2.97 units (Brier 0.237).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 8 W · 7 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance 1X	2.24	—	56%	Cashed	+1.24	Cashed
AH Home 0	3.45	—	38%	Cashed	+2.45	Cashed
Home Win	4.62	—	28%	Cashed	+3.62	Cashed
Draw	4.47	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.36	—	42%	Cashed	+1.36	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.69	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.53	—	64%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	62%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
BTTS No	2.55	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.17	—	82%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.24	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.60	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.74	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.33	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 7 L	+2.97u	+20% ROI