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Home World UEFA Champions League Benfica — Real Madrid

Predictions Benfica vs Real Madrid January 28, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Benfica
Benfica
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Wed 28 Jan · 20:00
4:2
Full-time
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
W W W L L Away · last 5
Referee Davide Massa, Italy
Home Win · BEN
28%
Best 4.09
Draw
28%
Best 4.10
Away Win · REA
45%
Best 1.80
Model pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.36
Fair odds
2.38
book 2.36 · no edge vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 42%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win
Probability 27.5%
Odds 4.62
Show model details
Implied probability 21.6%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 28%
Odds 4.47
Show model details
Implied probability 22.4%
Bet quality Low
Away Win Best in group
Probability 44.5%
Odds 1.74
Show model details
Implied probability 57.5%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 6 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 42%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 58%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 64%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 95%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality High
Over 1.5
Probability 82%
Odds 1.17
Show model details
Implied probability 85.5%
Bet quality High
Under 2.5
Probability 36%
Odds 2.60
Show model details
Implied probability 38.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 62%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No
Probability 38%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Value pick
Probability 38%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 62%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Medium
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Value pick
Probability 55.5%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.6%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 72.5%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.6%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.