Ajax won 2–1 away at Villarreal. At half-time it was 0–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 15, 8 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 16 graded markets, 8 landed and 8 missed, for a net +3.29 units (Brier 0.182).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 1.79 | — | 61% | Cashed | +0.79 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 5.53 | — | 32% | Cashed | +4.53 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 2.52 | — | 59% | Cashed | +1.52 | Cashed |
| Under 1.5 | 6.25 | — | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 4.25 | — | 32% | Cashed | +3.25 | Cashed |
| Draw | 4.72 | — | 27% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS No | 2.55 | — | 44% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 2.5 | 2.80 | — | 40% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 0.5 | 21.00 | — | 5% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.47 | — | 60% | Cashed | +0.47 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 1.55 | — | 56% | Cashed | +0.55 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 2.18 | — | 39% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.19 | — | 68% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 1.15 | — | 78% | Cashed | +0.15 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.03 | — | 95% | Cashed | +0.03 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.60 | — | 41% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 16 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 8 W · 8 L | +3.29u | +21% ROI |
