Match Villarreal vs Ajax January 20, 2026 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Tue 20 Jan · 20:00
1:2
Full-time
Ajax
L
L
W
W
L
Away · last 5
Estadio de la Ceramica · Villarreal
Referee Nick Walsh, Scotland
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 61% · book 1.79
✓
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 32% · book 5.53
✓
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 59% · book 2.52
✓
xG (open play)
1.35 – 0.91
Δ +0.44
AI accuracy
8 / 16
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks BTTS No at 2.55 — +12.0% better than the market.
Villarreal should be comfortable in long spells at Estadio de la Ceramica, but Ajax arrive in stronger rhythm and are capable of keeping this tight for long periods. The most likely game script is Villarreal having more control, Ajax staying competitive through transitions and set plays, and the match leaning toward a normal scoring range rather than a one-sided blowout.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 2.55
✗ Lost
AI 44%
Implied 39%
−1.00u
⛀ Lineups
VIL 4-4-2 · AJA 4-3-3
📊 Statistics
VIL 1
– 2 AJA
1.35
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.91
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
92%
Match recap
Ajax won 2–1 away at Villarreal. At half-time it was 0–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 15, 8 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 16 graded markets, 8 landed and 8 missed, for a net +3.29 units (Brier 0.182).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
16 · 8 W · 8 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.79 |
— |
61% |
Cashed |
+0.79 |
Cashed
|
| Away Win |
5.53 |
— |
32% |
Cashed |
+4.53 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance X2 |
2.52 |
— |
59% |
Cashed |
+1.52 |
Cashed
|
| Under 1.5 |
6.25 |
— |
22% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away 0 |
4.25 |
— |
32% |
Cashed |
+3.25 |
Cashed
|
| Draw |
4.72 |
— |
27% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.55 |
— |
44% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.80 |
— |
40% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 0.5 |
21.00 |
— |
5% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.47 |
— |
60% |
Cashed |
+0.47 |
Cashed
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.55 |
— |
56% |
Cashed |
+0.55 |
Cashed
|
| Over 3.5 |
2.18 |
— |
39% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.19 |
— |
68% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.15 |
— |
78% |
Cashed |
+0.15 |
Cashed
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.03 |
— |
95% |
Cashed |
+0.03 |
Cashed
|
| Home Win |
1.60 |
— |
41% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Total · 16 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 8 L |
+3.29u |
+21% ROI |
