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Home › World › UEFA Champions League › Villarreal — Ajax

Predictions by Market: Villarreal vs Ajax

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Villarreal
Villarreal
Home · last 5 L L L L L
Kick-off
Tue 20 Jan · 20:00
1:2
Full-time
Ajax
Ajax
L L W W L Away · last 5
Estadio de la Cerámica · Villarreal Referee Nick Walsh, Scotland

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · VIL
41%
Best 1.34
Draw
27%
Best 5.61
VALUE
Away Win · AJA
32%
Best 8.00
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 2.55
Fair odds
2.27
book 2.55 · +12.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 44% · EV +12.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS Yes is more likely (56%), but BTTS No is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Value pick
Probability 32%
Odds 5.53
Show model details
Implied probability 18.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 27%
Odds 4.72
Show model details
Implied probability 21.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 41%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 61%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 22%
Odds 6.25
Show model details
Implied probability 16%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 40%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 5%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 60%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 39%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 45.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 78%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 95%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality High
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 44%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 56%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 1 market
✓ AH Away 0 Value pick
Probability 32%
Odds 4.25
Show model details
Implied probability 23.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Value pick
Probability 59%
Odds 2.52
Show model details
Implied probability 39.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 68%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS No
VIL – AJA @ 2.55
+12.0%
Edge
Forecast →