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Home World UEFA Champions League Villarreal — Ajax

Predictions Villarreal vs Ajax January 20, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Villarreal
Villarreal
Home · last 5 L L L L L
Kick-off
Tue 20 Jan · 20:00
1:2
Full-time
Ajax
Ajax
L L W W L Away · last 5
Estadio de la Ceramica · Villarreal Referee Nick Walsh, Scotland
Home Win · VIL
41%
Best 1.34
Draw
27%
Best 5.61
VALUE
Away Win · AJA
32%
Best 8.00
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 2.55
Fair odds
2.27
book 2.55 · +12.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 44% · EV +12.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS Yes is more likely (56%), but BTTS No is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Value pick
Probability 32%
Odds 5.53
Show model details
Implied probability 18.1%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 27%
Odds 4.72
Show model details
Implied probability 21.2%
Bet quality Low
Home Win Best in group
Probability 41%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 61%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 22%
Odds 6.25
Show model details
Implied probability 16%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 40%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 60%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 39%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 45.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 78%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality High
Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 95%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality High
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 44%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 56%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 1 market
AH Away 0 Value pick
Probability 32%
Odds 4.25
Show model details
Implied probability 23.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Value pick
Probability 59%
Odds 2.52
Show model details
Implied probability 39.7%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 68%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS No
VIL – AJA @ 2.55
+12.0%
Edge
Forecast →