Manchester City won 2–1 away at Real Madrid. At half-time it was 1–2.
On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.58 to 1.44. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 12, 1 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.74 units (Brier 0.150).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 1.45 | — | 71% | Cashed | +0.45 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 2.27 | — | 45% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 2.55 | — | 40% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.50 | — | 68% | Cashed | +0.50 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 2.71 | — | 37% | Cashed | +1.71 | Cashed |
| Over 1.5 | 1.16 | — | 86% | Cashed | +0.16 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.03 | — | 96% | Cashed | +0.03 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.61 | — | 60% | Cashed | +0.61 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.53 | — | 63% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 1.74 | — | 55% | Cashed | +0.74 | Cashed |
| Draw | 4.00 | — | 23% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 2.5 | 2.67 | — | 32% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 1.5 | 6.00 | — | 14% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 0.5 | 21.00 | — | 4% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS No | 2.88 | — | 29% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home 0 | 1.92 | — | 40% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 2.06 | — | 37% | Cashed | +1.06 | Cashed |
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 8 W · 9 L | −3.74u | −22% ROI |
