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Prognosist
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⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football World UEFA Champions League Qarabag — Ajax

Match Qarabag vs Ajax December 10, 2025

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Qarabag
Qarabag
Home · last 5 L W L L L
Kick-off
Wed 10 Dec · 17:45
2:4
Full-time
Ajax
Ajax
L L W W L Away · last 5
Tofiq Bahramov Stadium · Baku Referee Rade Obrenovič, Slovenia
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 66% · book 1.72
Hit
AH Away 0
AH Away 0
AI 40% · book 2.85
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 42% · book 2.63
Total goals
6
2 · 4
xG (open play)
1.08 – 1.68
Δ −0.60
Possession
47% – 53%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.72 — +14.0% better than the market.

Qarabag vs Ajax at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium looks like a very open European tie between a confident attacking home side and a traditionally big name that is in much worse defensive shape than in previous seasons. Qarabag have been scoring freely in Europe, especially at home, where they push a lot of players into the final third and keep creating pressure through fast transitions and set pieces. Ajax still have enough individual quality to hurt anyone going forward, but their recent European campaign shows big gaps at the back, with too many chances allowed and long spells of being pinned in their own half away from Amsterdam. Over ninety minutes this points towards a high-tempo match with plenty of shots and pressure around both penalty areas. Qarabag should enjoy more of the momentum in front of their fans, but Ajax can still exploit any spaces left when the hosts commit numbers forward. That mix of an aggressive home side and a fragile but talented visitor makes goal-based markets and positive handicaps on Ajax particularly interesting options for betting strategies.
P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 1.72 ✓ Cashed
AI 66% Implied 58% +0.72u
+72%
ROI on stake

📊 Statistics

KAR 24 AJA
47%
Possession (%)
53%
1.08
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.68
17
Total Shots
20
6
Shots on Target
8
7
Shots off Target
7
8
Shots Inside Box
11
4
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
1
3
Fouls
14
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
89%
0
Yellow Cards
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.72 66% Cashed +0.72 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.85 40% Cashed +1.85 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.63 42% Cashed +1.63 Cashed
Draw 4.07 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.21 88% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.91 55% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.60 65% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
Away Win 3.67 28% Cashed +2.67 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.04 96% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.34 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.06 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.50 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.53 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.44 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.32 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 16.50 4% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.80 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −0.37u −2% ROI
Best bet of the night · Over 2.5
KAR – AJA @ 1.72
+14.0%
Edge
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