Marseille vs Newcastle 2:1: Match Review & Stats
Kick-off
Tue 25 Nov · 20:00
2:1
Full-time
Orange Vélodrome · Marseille
Referee Maurizio Mariani, Italy
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 56% · book 1.87
✓
Miss
Draw
Draw
AI 27% · book 3.50
✗
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 26% · book 2.58
✗
xG (open play)
1.69 – 1.46
Δ +0.23
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Model verdict
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.87 — +5.0% better than the market.
Marseille host Newcastle at the Orange Vélodrome in a fiery European night between a strong attacking home side and a dangerous but inconsistent visitor. Marseille look solid at home in their league with plenty of goals scored and good control of possession, while Newcastle arrive with impressive European results but a more fragile domestic record. My Marseille vs Newcastle prediction expects an open match with chances at both ends, a slight edge to Marseille thanks to home advantage, and several interesting angles across 1X2, goals, double chance and Asian handicap markets.
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Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 1.87
✓ Cashed
AI 56%
Implied 54%
+0.87u
⛀ Lineups
MAR 4-2-3-1 · NEW 3-4-2-1
📊 Statistics
MAR 2
– 1 NEW
1.69
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.46
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
Match recap
Marseille beat Newcastle 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 5. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.15 units (Brier 0.127).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
17 · 8 W · 9 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
— |
56% |
Cashed |
+0.87 |
Cashed
|
| Draw |
3.50 |
— |
27% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Away Win |
2.58 |
— |
26% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.65 |
— |
61% |
Cashed |
+0.65 |
Cashed
|
| Home Win |
2.92 |
— |
47% |
Cashed |
+1.92 |
Cashed
|
| BTTS No |
2.35 |
— |
39% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.06 |
— |
94% |
Cashed |
+0.06 |
Cashed
|
| Under 0.5 |
12.90 |
— |
6% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.27 |
— |
78% |
Cashed |
+0.27 |
Cashed
|
| Under 1.5 |
4.10 |
— |
22% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
— |
44% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 3.5 |
3.10 |
— |
34% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.42 |
— |
66% |
Cashed |
+0.42 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.57 |
— |
74% |
Cashed |
+0.57 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance X2 |
1.47 |
— |
53% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away 0 |
1.86 |
— |
30% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Home 0 |
2.09 |
— |
47% |
Cashed |
+1.09 |
Cashed
|
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 9 L |
−3.15u |
−19% ROI |
