Newcastle beat Athletic Club 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.17 to 0.60. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 8, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.
Model audit for this match: of 21 graded markets, 10 landed and 11 missed, for a net -6.41 units (Brier 0.121).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 2.04 | — | 55% | Cashed | +1.04 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 6.50 | — | 20% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 0.5 | 12.60 | — | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 2.59 | — | 47% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 4.42 | — | 27% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 1.5 | 3.88 | — | 28% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 1.38 | — | 75% | Cashed | +0.38 | Cashed |
| BTTS No | 1.95 | — | 53% | Cashed | +0.95 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.57 | — | 53% | Cashed | +0.57 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 | — | 90% | Cashed | +0.04 | Cashed |
| Over 1.5 | 1.28 | — | 72% | Cashed | +0.28 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 1.97 | — | 47% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.90 | — | 45% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home +1 | 1.02 | — | 90% | Cashed | +0.02 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.21 | — | 53% | Cashed | +0.21 | Cashed |
| AH Away 0 | 4.76 | — | 20% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home -1 | 1.95 | — | 24% | Cashed | +0.95 | Cashed |
| AH Away -1 | 1.96 | — | 8% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home -2 | 4.17 | — | 8% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away -2 | 1.25 | — | 3% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.15 | — | 80% | Cashed | +0.15 | Cashed |
| Total · 21 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 10 W · 11 L | −6.41u | −31% ROI |
