Liverpool vs Newcastle 4:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.84 — +11.0% better than the market.

Liverpool arrive with a clear edge at Anfield, buoyed by stronger recent form and a slight quality advantage. Their offensive prowess faces a resilient Newcastle defense, setting up a tactical battle where Liverpool's pressing and home momentum could unlock chances. The match hints at a moderate tempo with potential for goals, given both sides' attacking capabilities and recent trends.

Home side's sharper form and attacking edge
Compact defensive setup from Newcastle
Moderate pace likely with goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.84 ✓ Cashed

AI 60% Implied 54% +0.84u

+84%

ROI on stake

Lineups

LIV 4-2-3-1 · NEW 4-3-3

LIV · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · NEW

22 Ekitiké ⚽

Subs used · LIV

84'

Chiesa ↑ ·

Salah ↓

84'

Jones ↑ ·

Ekitike ↓

87'

Endo ↑ ·

Wirtz ↓

Subs used · NEW

73'

Wissa ↑ ·

Barnes ↓

73'

Murphy ↑ ·

Elanga ↓

73'

Woltemade ↑ ·

Willock ↓

84'

Osula ↑ ·

Trippier ↓

89'

Murphy ↑ ·

Hall ↓

Statistics

LIV 4 – 1 NEW

54%

Possession (%)

46%

1.95

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.33

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

17 · 4 – 1

11'

▮

Anthony Gordon

Yellow Card

36'

⚽

A. Gordon

0–1

H. Ekitike

Assist · F. Wirtz · 1–1

⚽

41'

H. Ekitike

Assist · M. Kerkez · 2–1

⚽

43'

45+3'

▮

Jacob Ramsey

Yellow Card

Half-time · 2 – 1

Alexis Mac Allister

Yellow Card

▮

59'

F. Wirtz

Assist · M. Salah · 3–1

⚽

67'

73'

⇄

Y. Wissa ↓ · H. Barnes ↑

Substitution 1

73'

⇄

J. Murphy ↓ · A. Elanga ↑

Substitution 2

73'

⇄

N. Woltemade ↓ · J. Willock ↑

Substitution 3

F. Chiesa ↓ · M. Salah ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

84'

C. Jones ↓ · H. Ekitike ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

84'

⇄

W. Osula ↓ · K. Trippier ↑

Substitution 4

86'

▮

Dan Burn

Yellow Card

W. Endo ↓ · F. Wirtz ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

87'

89'

⇄

A. Murphy ↓ · L. Hall ↑

Substitution 5

I. Konate

4–1

⚽

90'

Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

Liverpool beat Newcastle 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.95 to 0.33. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 8, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 11 to 7. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.95 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Gordon (36'), H. Ekitike (41'), H. Ekitike (43'), F. Wirtz (67'), I. Konate (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.30 units (Brier 0.140).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.84	—	60%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.38	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.40	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.68	—	55%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	56%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.62	—	33%	Cashed	+1.62	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.10	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.42	—	60%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.00	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.27	—	82%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.53	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	17.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	94%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.21	—	78%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Draw	4.26	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.25	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.22	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.30u	−25% ROI

Liverpool vs Newcastle 4:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled