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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Strasbourg — Nice

Strasbourg vs Nice 3:1: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 04 Apr · 15:00
3:1
Full-time
Nice
Nice
D L D D W Away · last 5
Stade de la Meinau · Strasbourg Referee Thomas Leonard, France
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 60% · book 1.89 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 45% · book 2.25 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 46% · book 2.20 ✗
Total goals
4
3 · 1
xG (open play)
2.26 – 0.32
Δ +1.94
Possession
59% – 41%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.89 — +13.3% better than the market.

Strasbourg arrives with clear home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a notable edge in overall quality. Their defensive resilience combined with a sharper offensive edge against Nice's leaky defense suggests they can control the game tempo at Stade de la Meinau.

  • Home side's form and strength advantage
  • Defensive solidity vs away's offensive struggles
  • Moderate pace expected with balanced goal opportunities

Nice faces a tough challenge away, struggling for consistency and lacking the firepower to break down Strasbourg's compact block. Expect Strasbourg to leverage their home edge and pressing intensity to secure at least a draw.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 1.89 ✓ Cashed
AI 60% Implied 53% +0.89u
+89%
ROI on stake

Lineups

STR 4-2-3-1 · NIC 4-2-3-1
STR · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · NIC 39 Penders 22 Doué 2 Omobamidele 6 Doukouré 3 Chilwell 29 Mourabet ⚽ 8 Oyedele 80 Yassine 11 Nanasi 20 Godo ⚽ 19 Enciso ⚽ 80 Diouf 92 Clauss 33 Mendy ⚽ 28 Bah 26 Bard 8 Sanson 6 Boudaoui 20 Louchet 21 Jansson 10 Diop 11 Wahi
Subs used · STR
58' Barco ↑ · El Mourabet ↓
58' Hogsberg ↑ · Chilwell ↓
77' Emegha ↑ · Godo ↓
77' Anselmino ↑ · Omobamidele ↓
90+1' Amougou ↑ · Enciso ↓
Subs used · NIC
46' Dante ↑ · Bah ↓
46' Vanhoutte ↑ · Diop ↓
46' Cho ↑ · Jansson ↓
64' Abdi ↑ · Sanson ↓
80' Boudache ↑ · Wahi ↓

Statistics

STR 3 – 1 NIC
59%
Possession (%)
41%
2.26
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.32
16
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Target
3
7
Shots off Target
1
15
Shots Inside Box
4
4
Corner Kicks
10
1
Offsides
2
7
Fouls
15
90%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
0
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

16 · 3 – 1
M. Godo
Assist · G. Doue · 1–0
⚽
28'
J. Enciso
Assist · S. El Mourabet · 2–0
⚽
36'
41'
▮
Hicham Boudaoui
Yellow Card
S. El Mourabet
3–0
⚽
42'
43'
▮
Morgan Sanson
Yellow Card
Half-time · 3 – 0
46'
⇄
Dante ↓ · J. Bah ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
C. Vanhoutte ↓ · S. Diop ↑
Substitution 2
46'
⇄
M. Cho ↓ · I. Jansson ↑
Substitution 3
V. Barco ↓ · S. El Mourabet ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
58'
L. Hogsberg ↓ · B. Chilwell ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
58'
64'
⇄
A. Abdi ↓ · M. Sanson ↑
Substitution 4
E. Emegha ↓ · M. Godo ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
77'
A. Anselmino ↓ · A. Omobamidele ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
77'
80'
⇄
K. Boudache ↓ · E. Wahi ↑
Substitution 5
82'
⚽
A. Mendy
Assist · Dante · 3–1
M. Amougou ↓ · J. Enciso ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+1'
Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Strasbourg beat Nice 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.26 to 0.32. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 8, 6 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 10 to 4.

On the scoresheet: M. Godo (28'), J. Enciso (36'), S. El Mourabet (42'), A. Mendy (82').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.80 units (Brier 0.144).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.89 — 60% Cashed +0.89 Cashed
BTTS No 2.25 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.20 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.78 — 54% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.67 — 55% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.03 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.24 — 84% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.47 — 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.95 — 32% Cashed +1.95 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.38 — 60% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.05 — 93% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.33 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.24 — 78% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Draw 3.90 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 13.00 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.57 — 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.39 — 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.80u −22% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
STR – NIC @ 1.89
+13.3%
Edge
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