Match Toulouse vs Lens January 2, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.06 — +7.8% better than the market.

Toulouse hosts Lens in a Ligue 1 clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge and a strong winning streak. Lens’ potent attack faces a resilient Toulouse defense, but the home side’s recent form and home momentum could keep this tight. Expect a balanced pace with chances on both ends, as Lens’ pressing and offensive threat meet Toulouse’s compact block and set-piece danger.

Lens’ unbeaten run signals confidence and attacking sharpness
Toulouse’s home form suggests resilience and tactical discipline
Moderate pace likely, with goal opportunities for both sides

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 2.06 ✓ Cashed

AI 52% Implied 49% +1.06u

+106%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

TOU 3-4-2-1 · LEN 3-4-2-1

TOU · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · LEN

20 Emersonn

Subs used · TOU

30'

Koumbassa ↑ ·

Nicolaisen ↓

63'

Sauer ↑ ·

Vossah ↓

63'

Hidalgo ↑ ·

Messali ↓

77'

Kamanzi ↑

77'

Vignolo ↑ ·

Donnum ↓

Subs used · LEN

37'

Fofana ↑ ·

Edouard ↓

74'

Guilavogui ↑ ·

Thauvin ↓

90'

Bermont ↑ ·

Abdulhamid ↓

90'

Sotoca ↑ ·

Bulatovic ↓

📊 Statistics

TOU 0 – 3 LEN

32%

Possession (%)

68%

0.66

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.53

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

74%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 0 – 3

Emersonn

Red Card

▮

23'

S. Koumbassa ↓ · R. Nicolaisen ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

30'

37'

⇄

R. Fofana ↓ · O. Edouard ↑

Substitution 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

50'

▮

Florian Thauvin

Yellow Card

Charlie Cresswell

Yellow Card

▮

57'

⚽

W. Said

0–1

M. Sauer ↓ · A. Vossah ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

63'

S. Hidalgo ↓ · R. Messali ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

63'

74'

⇄

M. Guilavogui ↓ · F. Thauvin ↑

Substitution 2

W. Kamanzi ↓ ·

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

J. Vignolo ↓ · A. Donnum ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

77'

85'

⚽

A. Thomasson

0–2

Mario Sauer

Yellow Card

▮

87'

88'

▮

Andrija Bulatovic

Yellow Card

90'

⇄

A. Bermont ↓ · S. Abdulhamid ↑

Substitution 3

90'

⇄

F. Sotoca ↓ · A. Bulatovic ↑

Substitution 4

90'

⚽

I. Ganiou

Assist · A. Thomasson · 0–3

90+2'

▮

Robin Risser

Yellow Card

Full-time · 0 – 3

Match recap

Lens won 3–0 away at Toulouse. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 68% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.53 to 0.66. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 8, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: W. Said (57'), A. Thomasson (85'), I. Ganiou (90'). Emersonn was sent off in the 23' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.51 units (Brier 0.166).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.06	—	52%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.76	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.13	—	44%	Cashed	+1.13	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.89	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.67	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.09	—	41%	Cashed	+1.09	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.90	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.93	—	41%	Cashed	+1.93	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.55	—	68%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.47	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.60	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.33	—	76%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	92%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.33	—	69%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Draw	3.40	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.59	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.51u	−15% ROI