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Prognosist
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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football France Ligue 1 Lille — Marseille

Match Lille vs Marseille December 5, 2025

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Lille
Lille
Home · last 5 D W D W L
Kick-off
Fri 05 Dec · 20:00
1:0
Full-time
Marseille
Marseille
L D L W W Away · last 5
Referee Jérôme Brisard, France
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 66% · book 1.79
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 45% · book 2.72
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 67% · book 1.60
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.36 – 0.52
Δ −0.16
Possession
42% – 58%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.60 — +7.8% better than the market.

Marseille enter this clash with a clear quality edge, boasting a stronger overall profile and a more potent attack compared to Lille. Despite Lille's recent home momentum, Marseille's defensive solidity and offensive threat suggest they can control the game tempo and exploit Lille's defensive vulnerabilities. The home side's slight pressing edge may create chances, but Marseille's ability to absorb pressure and counter could prove decisive.

  • Marseille's superior quality and attacking edge
  • Lille's home momentum and pressing style
  • Potential for a lively, goal-rich encounter given attacking strengths

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 1.60 ✗ Lost
AI 67% Implied 63% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LIL 4-2-3-1 · MAR 3-4-2-1
Subs used · LIL
26' Giroud ↑ · Igamane
70' Mukau ↑ · Mbappe
70' Correia ↑ · Sahraoui
84' Gomes ↑ · Haraldsson
Subs used · MAR
66' Bakola ↑ · Pavard
66' Vaz ↑ · Aubameyang
80' Nadir ↑ · Kondogbia
80' Mmadi ↑ · Paixao

📊 Statistics

LIL 10 MAR
42%
Possession (%)
58%
0.36
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.52
5
Total Shots
6
2
Shots on Target
2
0
Shots off Target
1
4
Shots Inside Box
3
2
Corner Kicks
5
2
Offsides
1
9
Fouls
11
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
87%
1
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

11 · 1 – 0
E. Mbappe
Assist · N. Bentaleb · 1–0
10'
26'
Arthur Vermeeren
Yellow Card
O. Giroud ↓ · H. Igamane ↑
Substitution 1
26'
Half-time · 1 – 0
66'
D. Bakola ↓ · B. Pavard ↑
Substitution 1
66'
R. Vaz ↓ · P. Aubameyang ↑
Substitution 2
N. Mukau ↓ · E. Mbappe ↑
Substitution 2
70'
F. Correia ↓ · O. Sahraoui ↑
Substitution 3
70'
80'
B. Nadir ↓ · G. Kondogbia ↑
Substitution 3
80'
T. Mmadi ↓ · I. Paixao ↑
Substitution 4
A. Gomes ↓ · H. Haraldsson ↑
Substitution 4
84'
Berke Özer
Yellow Card
90+1'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.79 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.72 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.60 67% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.00 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.48 33% Cashed +1.48 Cashed
Home Win 2.69 29% Cashed +1.69 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.20 34% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.96 29% Cashed +0.96 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.55 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.95 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.24 85% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.52 55% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.47 55% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.05 96% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 3.61 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.33 15% Cashed +3.33 Cashed
Under 0.5 15.00 4% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L +0.70u +4% ROI
Best bet of the night · BTTS Yes
LIL – MAR @ 1.60
+7.8%
Edge
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