Lille vs Marseille 1:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.55 — +9.8% better than the market.

Marseille enter this clash with a clear quality edge, boasting a stronger overall profile and a more potent attack compared to Lille. Despite Lille's recent home momentum, Marseille's defensive solidity and offensive threat suggest they can control the game tempo and exploit Lille's defensive vulnerabilities. The home side's slight pressing edge may create chances, but Marseille's ability to absorb pressure and counter could prove decisive.

Marseille's superior quality and attacking edge
Lille's home momentum and pressing style
Potential for a lively, goal-rich encounter given attacking strengths

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.55 ✗ Lost

AI 71% Implied 65% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

LIL 4-2-3-1 · MAR 3-4-2-1

LIL · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · MAR

29 Igamane

Subs used · LIL

26'

Giroud ↑ ·

Igamane ↓

70'

Mukau ↑ ·

Mbappe ↓

70'

Correia ↑ ·

Sahraoui ↓

84'

Gomes ↑ ·

Haraldsson ↓

Subs used · MAR

66'

Bakola ↑ ·

Pavard ↓

66'

Vaz ↑ ·

Aubameyang ↓

80'

Nadir ↑ ·

Kondogbia ↓

80'

Mmadi ↑ ·

Paixao ↓

Statistics

LIL 1 – 0 MAR

42%

Possession (%)

58%

0.36

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.52

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

11 · 1 – 0

E. Mbappe

Assist · N. Bentaleb · 1–0

⚽

10'

26'

▮

Arthur Vermeeren

Yellow Card

O. Giroud ↓ · H. Igamane ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

26'

Half-time · 1 – 0

66'

⇄

D. Bakola ↓ · B. Pavard ↑

Substitution 1

66'

⇄

R. Vaz ↓ · P. Aubameyang ↑

Substitution 2

N. Mukau ↓ · E. Mbappe ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

F. Correia ↓ · O. Sahraoui ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

70'

80'

⇄

B. Nadir ↓ · G. Kondogbia ↑

Substitution 3

80'

⇄

T. Mmadi ↓ · I. Paixao ↑

Substitution 4

A. Gomes ↓ · H. Haraldsson ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

84'

Berke Özer

Yellow Card

▮

90+1'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Lille beat Marseille 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2.

On the scoresheet: E. Mbappe (10').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.70 units (Brier 0.341).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.79	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.72	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.60	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.00	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.48	—	33%	Cashed	+1.48	Cashed
Home Win	2.69	—	29%	Cashed	+1.69	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.20	—	34%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.96	—	29%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.55	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.95	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.24	—	85%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.52	—	55%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.47	—	55%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	96%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.61	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	—	15%	Cashed	+3.33	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.70u	+4% ROI

Lille vs Marseille 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled