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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Lens — Paris FC

Lens vs Paris FC 2:1: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Lens
Lens
Home · last 5 D D W L W
Kick-off
Sun 19 Oct · 13:00
2:1
Full-time
Paris FC
Paris FC
W L W L W Away · last 5
Stade Bollaert-Delelis · Lens Referee Gael Angoula, France
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 45% · book 2.80 ✗
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 66% · book 1.75 ✓
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 31% · book 4.02 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.79 – 0.53
Δ +1.26
Possession
43% – 57%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.98 — +6.7% better than the market.

Preview & Verdict

In the upcoming clash between Lens and Paris FC, expect a dynamic encounter with a high likelihood of goals. Our analysis suggests a strong probability for over 2.5 goals, with an estimated 65.88% chance, compared to the odds-implied 57.14%. Additionally, the away side shows potential for an upset, with a 30.54% estimated probability of winning, offering value against the odds. Both teams are likely to find the net, as indicated by a 64.31% chance for both teams to score. Overall, anticipate an open game with attacking opportunities for both sides.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.98 ✗ Lost
AI 54% Implied 51% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LEN 3-4-2-1 · PAR 4-3-3
LEN · 3-4-2-1 4-3-3 · PAR 40 Risser 24 Gradit 6 Baidoo ⚽ 20 Sarr 2 Aguilar 8 Sangare 28 Thomasson 14 Udol 10 Thauvin 29 Guilavogui 11 Édouard ⚽ 16 Nkambadio 14 Traoré 31 Chergui 6 Otávio 28 Smet 21 López 33 Melou ⚽ 17 Camara 10 Kebbal 11 Krasso 27 Simon
Subs used · LEN
59' Said ↑ · Edouard ↓
72' Abdulhamid ↑ · Aguilar ↓
72' Sima ↑ · Thauvin ↓
90+4' Sotoca ↑ · Guilavogui ↓
Subs used · PAR
46' Sangui ↑ · De Smet ↓
63' Gory ↑ · Simon ↓
63' Geubbels ↑ · Krasso ↓
72' Ikone ↑ · Camara ↓
82' Marchetti ↑ · Lees-Melou ↓

Statistics

LEN 2 – 1 PAR
43%
Possession (%)
57%
1.79
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.53
11
Total Shots
9
3
Shots on Target
3
4
Shots off Target
2
10
Shots Inside Box
7
11
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
2
11
Fouls
9
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
2
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

16 · 2 – 1
8'
▮
Ilan Kebbal
Yellow Card
O. Edouard
Assist · A. Thomasson · 1–0
⚽
17'
27'
⚽
P. Lees-Melou
Assist · I. Kebbal · 1–1
Florian Thauvin
Yellow Card
▮
45+1'
Half-time · 1 – 1
46'
⇄
N. Sangui ↓ · T. De Smet ↑
Substitution 1
55'
▮
Hamari Traoré
Yellow Card
W. Said ↓ · O. Edouard ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
59'
63'
⇄
A. Gory ↓ · M. Simon ↑
Substitution 2
63'
⇄
W. Geubbels ↓ · J. Krasso ↑
Substitution 3
S. Baidoo
Assist · A. Thomasson · 2–1
⚽
64'
S. Abdulhamid ↓ · R. Aguilar ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
72'
A. Sima ↓ · F. Thauvin ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
72'
72'
⇄
J. Ikone ↓ · A. Camara ↑
Substitution 4
82'
⇄
V. Marchetti ↓ · P. Lees-Melou ↑
Substitution 5
Abdallah Sima
Yellow Card
▮
90'
F. Sotoca ↓ · M. Guilavogui ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+4'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Lens beat Paris FC 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.79 to 0.53. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: O. Edouard (17'), P. Lees-Melou (27'), S. Baidoo (64').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.21 units (Brier 0.126).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 3.5 2.80 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.75 — 66% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
Away Win 4.02 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.63 — 64% Cashed +0.63 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.98 — 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.22 — 86% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Home Win 1.94 — 46% Cashed +0.94 Cashed
Draw 3.98 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.36 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 — 97% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Under 0.5 15.00 — 3% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.50 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.27 — 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.50 — 55% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.29 — 69% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.42 — 46% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.03 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.21u −31% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
LEN – PAR @ 1.98
+6.7%
Edge
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