Match Brighton vs Burnley January 3, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Brighton holds a clear quality edge over Burnley, boosted by a solid home defensive record and a more potent attack. Their recent form shows resilience with several draws, while Burnley struggles to find consistency. Expect Brighton’s pressing and control to limit Burnley’s chances, especially given the away side’s defensive vulnerabilities.

Brighton’s home momentum and compact block
Burnley’s defensive struggles against strong offenses
Moderate pace suggested by balanced goal expectations

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

BRI 4-2-3-1 · BUR 5-4-1

BRI · 4-2-3-1 5-4-1 · BUR

19 Kostoulas

Subs used · BRI

70'

De Cuyper ↑ ·

Mitoma ↓

71'

Welbeck ↑ ·

Rutter ↓

71'

Gross ↑ ·

Kostoulas ↓

80'

Milner ↑ ·

Gomez ↓

87'

Watson ↑ ·

Gruda ↓

Subs used · BUR

55'

Edwards ↑ ·

Bruun Larsen ↓

55'

Sonne ↑ ·

Ugochukwu ↓

64'

Tchaouna ↑ ·

Broja ↓

81'

Banel ↑ ·

Anthony ↓

📊 Statistics

BRI 2 – 0 BUR

60%

Possession (%)

40%

1.40

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.30

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 2 – 0

22'

▮

Josh Laurent

Yellow Card

G. Rutter

Assist · C. Kostoulas · 1–0

⚽

29'

39'

▮

Florentino Luís

Yellow Card

44'

▮

Bashir Humphreys

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 0

Y. Ayari

2–0

⚽

47'

55'

⇄

M. Edwards ↓ · J. Bruun Larsen ↑

Substitution 1

55'

⇄

O. Sonne ↓ · L. Ugochukwu ↑

Substitution 2

64'

⇄

L. Tchaouna ↓ · A. Broja ↑

Substitution 3

M. De Cuyper ↓ · K. Mitoma ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

70'

D. Welbeck ↓ · G. Rutter ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

P. Gross ↓ · C. Kostoulas ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

J. Milner ↓ · D. Gomez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

80'

81'

⇄

J. Banel ↓ · J. Anthony ↑

Substitution 4

T. Watson ↓ · B. Gruda ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

87'

90+3'

▮

Kyle Walker

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Brighton beat Burnley 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.40 to 0.30. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 5, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: G. Rutter (29'), Y. Ayari (47').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.15 units (Brier 0.100).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.20	—	49%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
BTTS No	2.01	—	51%	Cashed	+1.01	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.85	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.89	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.68	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.54	—	68%	Cashed	+0.54	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.35	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.15	—	90%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.47	—	70%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.90	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.19	—	68%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Under 0.5	14.90	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	93%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	4.52	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.24	—	76%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Away Win	7.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.09	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.15u	−30% ROI