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Home › England › Premier League › Brighton — Burnley

Predictions by Market: Brighton vs Burnley

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Brighton
Brighton
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Sat 03 Jan · 15:00
2:0
Full-time
Burnley
Burnley
L L D L D Away · last 5
American Express Stadium · Falmer Referee Tim Robinson, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · BRI
68%
Best 1.46
Draw
21%
Best 4.60
Away Win · BUR
10%
Best 7.00
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.20
Fair odds
2.05
book 2.20 · +7.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 49% · EV +7.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (51%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 68.4%
Odds 1.54
Show model details
Implied probability 64.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 21.2%
Odds 4.52
Show model details
Implied probability 22.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 10.4%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 48.7%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 24.4%
Odds 4.35
Show model details
Implied probability 23%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 70%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 30%
Odds 2.90
Show model details
Implied probability 34.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 7%
Odds 14.90
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 75.6%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 50.9%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 49.1%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 68.4%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 10.4%
Odds 5.09
Show model details
Implied probability 19.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 31.6%
Odds 2.68
Show model details
Implied probability 37.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 89.6%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
BRI – BUR @ 2.20
+7.2%
Edge
Forecast →