Newcastle vs Chelsea 2:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.49 — +8.4% better than the market.

Newcastle hosts Chelsea in a Premier League clash where Chelsea's overall quality edge is clear, but Newcastle's home form and defensive solidity offer a strong counterbalance. Newcastle's pressing and compact block at St. James' Park could disrupt Chelsea's attacking rhythm, especially given Chelsea's slightly better offensive edge against Newcastle's defense.

Newcastle's recent home momentum contrasts with Chelsea's inconsistent away form.
Defensive resilience at home may limit Chelsea's chances despite their offensive quality.
The match hints at a moderate pace with a balanced goal environment, favoring tactical discipline.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.49 ✓ Cashed

AI 73% Implied 67% +0.49u

+49%

ROI on stake

Lineups

NEW 4-3-3 · CHE 4-2-3-1

NEW · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · CHE

10 Gordon

Subs used · NEW

72'

Barnes ↑ ·

Gordon ↓

73'

Wissa ↑ ·

Woltemade ↓

73'

Elanga ↑ ·

Murphy ↓

89'

Willock ↑ ·

Ramsey ↓

Subs used · CHE

54'

Fernandez ↑ ·

Gusto ↓

79'

Santos ↑ ·

Palmer ↓

Statistics

NEW 2 – 2 CHE

47%

Possession (%)

53%

2.26

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.25

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

77%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

19 · 2 – 2

N. Woltemade

1–0

⚽

▮

Robert Sánchez

Yellow Card

N. Woltemade

Assist · A. Gordon · 2–0

⚽

20'

27'

▮

Alejandro Garnacho

Yellow Card

45'

▮

Malo Gusto

Yellow Card

Half-time · 2 – 0

49'

⚽

R. James

2–1

54'

⇄

E. Fernandez ↓ · M. Gusto ↑

Substitution 1

Fabian Schär

Yellow Card

▮

61'

66'

⚽

Joao Pedro

Assist · R. Sanchez · 2–2

70'

▮

Moisés Caicedo

Yellow Card

H. Barnes ↓ · A. Gordon ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

72'

Y. Wissa ↓ · N. Woltemade ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

A. Elanga ↓ · J. Murphy ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

73'

Yoane Wissa

Yellow Card

▮

77'

79'

⇄

Andrey Santos ↓ · C. Palmer ↑

Substitution 2

82'

▮

Andrey Santos

Yellow Card

83'

▮

João Pedro

Yellow Card

Lewis Hall

Yellow Card

▮

86'

J. Willock ↓ · J. Ramsey ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

89'

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Newcastle and Chelsea drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.26 to 1.25. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. Woltemade (4'), N. Woltemade (20'), R. James (49'), Joao Pedro (66').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.80 units (Brier 0.183).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.56	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.75	—	57%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
BTTS No	2.45	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.80	—	35%	Cashed	+1.80	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.25	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.60	—	60%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.88	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.07	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.49	—	73%	Cashed	+0.49	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.50	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.58	—	53%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Home Win	2.84	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.23	—	79%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.70	—	25%	Cashed	+2.70	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.80u	−11% ROI

Newcastle vs Chelsea 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled