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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › Heerenveen — AZ Alkmaar

Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar 2:3: Match Review & Stats

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Heerenveen
Heerenveen
Home · last 5 D L D W L
Kick-off
Sun 06 Sep · 12:30
2:3
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
W W D W L Away · last 5
Abe Lenstra Stadion · Heerenveen Referee Jeroen Manschot
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 50% · book 2.35 ✓
Miss
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 53% · book 2.00 ✗
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 47% · book 2.22 ✓
Total goals
5
2 · 3
Possession
45% – 55%
AI accuracy
4 / 9
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 4.00 — +12.0% better than the market.

AZ Alkmaar arrives with strong momentum, boasting a flawless recent run contrasting with Heerenveen's mixed form. The visitors' attacking prowess is evident, suggesting they could challenge Heerenveen's defense effectively. However, the home side's resilience and familiarity with their stadium might keep the contest tight.

  • AZ's high scoring trend vs Heerenveen's defensive setup
  • Heerenveen's home comfort as a balancing factor
  • Recent form favors AZ but not overwhelmingly

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 4.00 ✗ Lost
AI 28% Implied 25% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

HEE 2 – 3 ALK
45%
Possession (%)
55%
14
Total Shots
15
5
Shots on Target
8
3
Shots off Target
3
10
Shots Inside Box
8
4
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
4
9
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match recap

AZ Alkmaar won 3–2 away at Heerenveen. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 9 graded markets, 4 landed and 5 missed, for a net -1.54 units (Brier 0.178).

Bet recap · markets settled

9 · 4 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 3.5 2.35 — 50% Cashed +1.35 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 2.00 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.22 — 47% Cashed +1.22 Cashed
BTTS No 2.50 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.62 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 4.00 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.39 — 72% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.50 — 60% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Draw 4.10 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 9 markets @ 1u each — — — 4 W · 5 L −1.54u −17% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
HEE – ALK @ 4.00
+12.0%
Edge
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