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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › Ajax — PSV Eindhoven

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Ajax
Ajax
Home · last 5 L W W D D
Kick-off
Sat 05 Sep · 18:00
1:3
Full-time
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
W W W L W Away · last 5
Johan Cruijff Arena · Amsterdam Referee Sander van der Eijk
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 63% · book 1.91 ✓
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 40% · book 2.43 ✓
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 36% · book 2.65 ✗
Total goals
4
1 · 3
Possession
53% – 47%
AI accuracy
5 / 11
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.40 — +9.9% better than the market.

Ajax and PSV Eindhoven face off in what promises to be an open, attacking encounter at the Johan Cruijff Arena. Both sides show strong recent form, with PSV holding a slight edge in points per game and expected goals, hinting at their offensive threat. The history of high-scoring draws suggests a lively pace and goal-rich environment.

  • Home momentum balanced by PSV's sharper recent run
  • Both teams likely to press high and create chances
  • Expect a match with multiple goals and shared attacking pressure

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 1.40 ✓ Cashed
AI 79% Implied 71% +0.40u
+40%
ROI on stake

Statistics

AJA 1 – 3 PSV
53%
Possession (%)
47%
19
Total Shots
13
6
Shots on Target
5
7
Shots off Target
6
12
Shots Inside Box
11
1
Corner Kicks
1
1
Offsides
1
6
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
6
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match recap

PSV Eindhoven won 3–1 away at Ajax. At half-time it was 1–2.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 13, 6 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net -2.40 units (Brier 0.136).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 3.5 1.91 — 63% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Away Win 2.43 — 40% Cashed +1.43 Cashed
Home Win 2.65 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.98 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.40 — 79% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.50 — 64% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.57 — 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.36 — 79% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.99 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.00 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 3.21 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each — — — 5 W · 6 L −2.40u −22% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
AJA – PSV @ 1.40
+9.9%
Edge
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