P
Prognosist
P
Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › Willem II — Heerenveen

Willem II vs Heerenveen 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Willem II
Willem II
Home · last 5 D L D L L
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug · 12:30
2:2
Full-time
Heerenveen
Heerenveen
D L D W L Away · last 5
Koning Willem II Stadion · Tilburg Referee Jannick van der Laan, Netherlands
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 62% · book 1.78 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 41% · book 2.70 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 39% · book 2.69 ✗
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
1.70 – 1.35
Δ +0.35
Possession
39% – 61%
AI accuracy
6 / 11
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.70 — +11.8% better than the market.

Heerenveen arrives with better recent form and a clear points advantage, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Willem II’s struggles at home and lack of recent wins hint at a tough night ahead. Expect a cautious tempo with both sides likely to prioritize defensive solidity, given the moderate goal expectations and odds favoring under 3.5 goals.

  • Heerenveen’s momentum and away resilience
  • Willem II’s home difficulties and low scoring trend
  • Likely compact defensive setups limiting chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.70 ✗ Lost
AI 41% Implied 37% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

WIL 2 – 2 HEE
39%
Possession (%)
61%
1.70
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.35
12
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Target
5
5
Shots off Target
5
8
Shots Inside Box
11
9
Corner Kicks
7
2
Offsides
2
9
Fouls
5
77%
Pass Accuracy (%)
88%
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match recap

Willem II and Heerenveen drew 2–2. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 88% of their passes.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 6 landed and 5 missed, for a net +1.52 units (Brier 0.243).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 6 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.78 — 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.70 — 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.69 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 2.01 — 50% Cashed +1.01 Cashed
Away Win 1.82 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.10 — 38% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
Home Win 3.90 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.27 — 73% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.44 — 61% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.44 — 59% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Draw 4.26 — 23% Cashed +3.26 Cashed
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each — — — 6 W · 5 L +1.52u +14% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
WIL – HEE @ 2.70
+11.8%
Edge
Forecast →