🧠 Model verdict
Model leans toward both teams to score — 59% probability.
Also rated highly: Over 2.5 goals 57%.
Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.
AI preview · 90 sec read
Nacional shows a slight edge with better recent form and higher scoring potential, suggesting home momentum could be key. Estrela’s compact block and tendency to draw matches hint at a cautious approach, but Nacional’s pressing and set-piece threat may unlock chances.
- Home side’s sharper form and goal threat
- Estrela’s defensive resilience
- Moderate pace expected with balanced goal opportunities
✓ Most likely outcomes
What the model rates as most likely in each market.
| Market | Prob. % | Pred. |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 43% | Nacional win |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 57% | Over 2.5 |
| BTTS | 59% | Yes |
| Double Chance | 70% | 1X |
- 1X2 Nacional win 43%
- Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57%
- BTTS Yes 59%
- Double Chance 1X 70%
📈 Odds movement · 1X2
72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
≡ Recent form
Last 5 matches · all competitions
Nacional
W/D/L
2-1-2
Goals (for / against)
6 / 5
Avg goals / match
2.2
Scored in
3/5
Clean sheets
2/5
Both teams scored
1/5
Over 2.5
1/5
Home (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Away (W-D-L)
0-1-2
xG (for / against)
1.05 / 1.63
Estrela
W/D/L
0-4-1
Goals (for / against)
8 / 9
Avg goals / match
3.4
Scored in
4/5
Clean sheets
1/5
Both teams scored
4/5
Over 2.5
4/5
Home (W-D-L)
0-2-0
Away (W-D-L)
0-2-1
xG (for / against)
1.17 / 2.09
⚔ Head-to-Head Performance
last 10 H2H · per matchEff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.
📡 Team strength
0–100 rating vs league · season-to-dateEach axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.
🎯 Scenario insights
①
Nacional wins when scoring first
83%
①
Estrela wins when scoring first
25%
⚽
Nacional BTTS rate · last 10
20%
⚽
Estrela BTTS rate · last 10
50%
↑
Nacional Over 2.5 · last 10
20%
↑
Estrela Over 2.5 · last 10
60%
↩
Nacional comeback rate · last 10
0%
↩
Estrela comeback rate · last 10
0%
🔥 Goal timing
Nacional · last 10 at home
0–15
15%
16–30
0%
31–45
8%
46–60
15%
61–75
38%
76–90
23%
Estrela · last 10 away
0–15
33%
16–30
0%
31–45
11%
46–60
11%
61–75
22%
76–90
22%
Late-game scoring — most goals come after the 60th.
