Nacional vs Estrela 2:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 3.22 — +14.4% better than the market.

Nacional shows a slight edge with better recent form and higher scoring potential, suggesting home momentum could be key. Estrela’s compact block and tendency to draw matches hint at a cautious approach, but Nacional’s pressing and set-piece threat may unlock chances.

Home side’s sharper form and goal threat
Estrela’s defensive resilience
Moderate pace expected with balanced goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 3.22 ✓ Cashed

AI 36% Implied 31% +2.22u

+222%

ROI on stake

Lineups

NAC 3-4-2-1 · EST 4-3-3

NAC · 3-4-2-1 4-3-3 · EST

99 Cardozo ⚽

Subs used · NAC

40'

Djalo ↑ ·

Soares ↓

69'

Gavriel ↑ ·

Junior ↓

69'

Obando ↑ ·

Ruan ↓

78'

Jensen ↑ ·

Kokolo ↓

79'

I. de la Cruz ↑ ·

Gasolina ↓

Subs used · EST

67'

Jordan ↑ ·

Robinho ↓

72'

Souza ↑ ·

Stoica ↓

89'

Schappo ↑ ·

Doue ↓

Statistics

NAC 2 – 3 EST

51%

Possession (%)

49%

0.83

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.10

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

16 · 2 – 3

Wesley Gasolina

Assist · W. Kokolo · 1–0

⚽

M. Djalo ↓ · F. Soares ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

40'

Ze Vitor

Yellow Card

▮

45'

45+1'

⚽

I. Stoica (P)

Penalty · 1–1

Half-time · 1 – 1

W. Kokolo

Yellow Card

▮

48'

62'

⚽

A. Marcus

Assist · G. Doue · 1–2

Pablo Ruan

Assist · Liziero · 2–2

⚽

66'

67'

⇄

Joan Jordan ↓ · Robinho ↑

Substitution 1

S. Gavriel ↓ · Daniel Junior ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

A. Obando ↓ · Pablo Ruan ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

72'

⇄

B. Souza ↓ · I. Stoica ↑

Substitution 2

M. Jensen ↓ · W. Kokolo ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

78'

D. I. de la Cruz ↓ · Wesley Gasolina ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

79'

83'

⚽

L. Antonetti

Assist · G. Doue · 2–3

86'

▮

L. Antonetti

Yellow Card

89'

⇄

Bernardo Schappo ↓ · G. Doue ↑

Substitution 3

Full-time · 2 – 3

Match recap

Estrela won 3–2 away at Nacional. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.10 to 0.83. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 10, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Wesley Gasolina (3'), I. Stoica (45+1'), A. Marcus (62'), Pablo Ruan (66'), L. Antonetti (83').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.88 units (Brier 0.221).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.98	2.00	57%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.70	1.72	59%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Home Win	2.30	2.30	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.05	2.03	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.87	1.85	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.65	1.66	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.27	2.26	30%	Cashed	+1.27	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.22	3.40	36%	Cashed	+2.22	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.36	1.36	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.05	3.15	30%	Cashed	+2.05	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.57	1.57	57%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.27	1.28	79%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	1.05	93%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.28	3.28	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.30	1.29	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.40	3.40	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.65	10.00	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.88u	−5% ROI

Nacional vs Estrela 2:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled