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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Arouca — Estrela

Arouca vs Estrela 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W D L D W
Kick-off
Sun 11 Oct · 19:30
1:0
Full-time
Estrela
Estrela
D W D L L Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Aruca Referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 64% · book 1.65 ✗
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 50% · book 1.95 ✗
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 54% · book 1.75 ✗
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.78 – 1.48
Δ −0.70
Possession
37% – 63%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.65 — +5.3% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.65 ✗ Lost
AI 64% Implied 61% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · EST 4-2-3-1
ARO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · EST 12 de Arruabarrena 28 Esgaio 15 Sánchez 3 Fontán 18 Lebedenko 6 van Ee 8 Fukui 19 Trezza 10 Gozálbez 7 Djouahra 17 Barbero ⚽ 24 Linck 21 Scholze 5 Leković 30 Luan 55 Soares 39 Doue 78 Serra 99 Marcus 14 Zvonarek 10 Stoica ⚽ 37 Antonetti
Subs used · ARO
57' Santos ↑ · Gozálbez ↓
65' Nandín ↑ · Barbero ↓
65' Rukavina ↑ · Djouahra ↓
79' Hyun-ju ↑ · Fukui ↓
80' Mansilla ↑ · Trezza ↓
Subs used · EST
61' Souza ↑ · Stoica ↓
62' Encada ↑ · Scholze ↓
82' Vanga ↑ · Doué ↓
90+1' Souza ↑ · Zvonarek ↓
90+1' Jansson ↑ · Serra ↓

Statistics

ARO 1 – 0 EST
37%
Possession (%)
63%
0.78
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.48
7
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Target
2
2
Shots off Target
7
5
Shots Inside Box
6
5
Corner Kicks
6
2
Offsides
3
10
Fouls
7
5
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

19 · 1 – 0
Iván Barbero
Assist · Näis Djouahra · 1–0
⚽
5'
45+4'
⚽
Ianis Stoica (P)
Penalty · 1–1
Half-time · 1 – 1
50'
▮
Max Scholze
Yellow Card
Pablo Gozálbez
Yellow Card
▮
45+6'
Iván Barbero
Yellow Card
▮
45+8'
45+8'
▮
Abraham Marcus
Yellow Card
Pedro Santos ↓ · Pablo Gozálbez ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
57'
61'
⇄
Beni Souza ↓ · Ianis Stoica ↑
Substitution 1
62'
⇄
Jefferson Encada ↓ · Max Scholze ↑
Substitution 2
Pedro Santos
Yellow Card
▮
62'
Dylan Nandín ↓ · Iván Barbero ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
65'
Gabrijel Rukavina ↓ · Näis Djouahra ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
65'
Lee Hyun-ju ↓ · Taichi Fukui ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
Brian Mansilla ↓ · Alfonso Trezza ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
80'
Taichi Fukui
Yellow Card
▮
81'
82'
⇄
Emerson Vanga ↓ · Eddy Doué ↑
Substitution 3
Jose Fontán
Yellow Card
▮
88'
90+1'
⇄
Alisson Souza ↓ · Lovro Zvonarek ↑
Substitution 4
90+1'
⇄
Kevin Hoog Jansson ↓ · Santiago Serra ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Arouca beat Estrela 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.48 to 0.78. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 11 shots to 7, 2 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Iván Barbero (5').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.34 units (Brier 0.238).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.65 1.69 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.95 1.85 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.75 1.67 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.90 1.95 50% Cashed +0.90 Cashed
BTTS No 2.00 2.10 46% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.68 2.39 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.15 2.17 36% Cashed +1.15 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.49 1.60 39% Cashed +0.49 Cashed
Away Win 3.20 3.30 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.17 3.00 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.36 1.32 62% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.03 1.02 92% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.26 1.22 74% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.31 1.33 71% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.42 3.75 26% Cashed +2.42 Cashed
Draw 3.35 3.34 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.00 10.99 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.34u −14% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
ARO – EST @ 1.65
+5.3%
Edge
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