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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Nacional — Estrela

Predictions Nacional vs Estrela August 30, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 D W L
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug · 14:30
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Estrela
Estrela
D D Away · last 5
Home Win · NAC
43%
Best 2.36
Draw
27%
Best 3.40
Away Win · EST
30%
Best 3.22
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 3.22
Fair odds
2.81
book 3.22 · +14.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 36% · EV +14.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (64%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 43.3%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 29.6%
Odds 3.05
Show model details
Implied probability 32.8%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 27.1%
Odds 3.28
Show model details
Implied probability 30.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5 Value pick
Probability 56.5%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.6%
Bet quality High
Under 2.5
Probability 43.5%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 35.6%
Odds 3.22
Show model details
Implied probability 31.1%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 78.6%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 79.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.1%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 64.4%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 21.4%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 7%
Odds 9.65
Show model details
Implied probability 10.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.4%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 43.3%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 29.6%
Odds 2.27
Show model details
Implied probability 44.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 70.4%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 56.7%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
NAC – EST @ 3.22
+14.4%
Edge
Forecast →