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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Marseille — Paris Saint Germain

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain 1:2: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Marseille
Marseille
Home · last 5 W L L L L
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sep · 18:45
1:2
Full-time
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
D L W W W Away · last 5
Orange Vélodrome · Marseille Referee Francois Letexier
Miss
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 34% · book 3.04 ✗
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 57% · book 1.86 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 37% · book 2.52 ✗
Total goals
3
1 · 2
Possession
39% – 61%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.86 — +5.3% better than the market.

Marseille and Paris Saint Germain face off with both sides showing mixed recent form, but Marseille holds a slight edge in home momentum. The match hints at a balanced tactical battle, with Marseille's pressing and home support contrasting PSG's compact defensive setup. Expect a moderately paced game given the odds favoring over 2.5 goals, suggesting some attacking intent from both sides.

  • Marseille's home resilience vs PSG's disciplined defense
  • Close form and points per game suggest a tight contest
  • Moderate tempo with potential for key moments on set pieces

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.86 ✓ Cashed
AI 57% Implied 54% +0.86u
+86%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MAR 4-2-3-1 · PSG 4-3-3
MAR · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · PSG 1 de Lange 22 Weah 4 Egan-Riley 21 Aguerd 33 Emerson 8 Abdelli 23 Højbjerg 77 Harit 9 Gouiri 14 Paixão 11 Maupay 39 Safonov 33 Zaïre-Emery 5 Marquinhos ⚽ 51 Pacho 25 Mendes 87 Neves 17 Vitinha 8 Ruiz 14 Doué 10 Dembélé 7 Kvaratskhelia
Subs used · MAR
30' Gomes ↑ · Paixão ↓
63' Abdallah ↑ · Harit ↓
84' Bezahaf ↑ · Abdelli ↓
84' Moumbagna ↑ · Maupay ↓
84' Garcia ↑ · Palmieri ↓
Subs used · PSG
59' Torres ↑ · Kvaratskhelia ↓
65' Akliouche ↑ · Ruiz ↓
79' Godts ↑ · Dembélé ↓
79' Beraldo ↑ · Doue ↓

Statistics

MAR 1 – 2 PSG
39%
Possession (%)
61%
12
Total Shots
31
4
Shots on Target
10
3
Shots off Target
12
7
Shots Inside Box
22
3
Corner Kicks
7
1
Offsides
2
9
Fouls
3
2
Yellow Cards
1
8
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

17 · 1 – 2
Angel Gomes ↓ · Igor Paixão ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
30'
Timothy Weah
Yellow Card
▮
32'
39'
▮
Nuno Mendes
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
59'
⇄
Ferrán Torres ↓ · Khvicha Kvaratskhelia ↑
Substitution 1
Keyliane Abdallah ↓ · Amine Harit ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
63'
65'
⇄
Maghnes Akliouche ↓ · Fabián Ruiz ↑
Substitution 2
66'
⚽
Ferrán Torres
Assist · Désiré Doue · 0–1
Angel Gomes
Assist · Amine Gouiri · 1–1
⚽
72'
74'
⚽
Marcos Aoás Corrêa
1–2
Timothy Weah
Red Card
▮
77'
79'
⇄
Mika Godts ↓ · Ousmane Dembélé ↑
Substitution 3
79'
⇄
Lucas Beraldo ↓ · Désiré Doue ↑
Substitution 4
Keyliane Abdallah
Yellow Card
▮
81'
Kelyann Bezahaf ↓ · Himad Abdelli ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
84'
Faris Moumbagna ↓ · Neal Maupay ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
Ulisses Garcia ↓ · Emerson Palmieri ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
Angel Gomes
Yellow Card
▮
90'
Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Paris Saint Germain won 2–1 away at Marseille. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 31 shots to 12, 10 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Ferrán Torres (66'), Angel Gomes (72'), Marcos Aoás Corrêa (74'). Timothy Weah was sent off in the 77' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.57 units (Brier 0.086).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance 1X 3.04 2.78 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.86 1.91 57% Cashed +0.86 Cashed
BTTS No 2.52 2.50 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.01 1.91 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 5.38 6.37 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.88 3.10 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.49 1.50 63% Cashed +0.49 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.10 1.12 84% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Away Win 1.39 1.43 66% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
AH Home 0 5.80 4.93 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 6.40 6.99 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.72 5.00 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.01 96% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Under 0.5 21.50 23.26 4% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.09 1.08 84% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.36 1.36 65% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.12 1.16 66% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −6.57u −39% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
MAR – PSG @ 1.86
+5.3%
Edge
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