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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Nice — Lille

Nice vs Lille 2:1: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Nice
Nice
Home · last 5 D L D L W
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sep · 15:15
2:1
Full-time
Lille
Lille
D W W L W Away · last 5
Allianz Riviera · Nice Referee Willy Delajod
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.91 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 55% · book 2.02 ✗
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 56% · book 1.73 ✓
Total goals
3
2 · 1
Possession
41% – 59%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.91 — +13.1% better than the market.

Nice hosts Lille in a Ligue 1 clash where recent form slightly favors the visitors, who have shown more consistency and a higher points per game. Despite Nice's home ground advantage, their recent draws and losses hint at a cautious approach. The matchup suggests a tight contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities, supported by balanced over/under odds and a history of low-scoring encounters.

  • Nice's home momentum is tempered by mixed recent results.
  • Lille's sharper form and away resilience could press Nice's defense.
  • Expect a compact game with a modest pace and few clear chances.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.91 ✗ Lost
AI 59% Implied 52% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NIC 3-4-2-1 · LIL 4-2-3-1
Subs used · NIC
58' Seidu ↑ · Ndayishimiye ↓
73' Pereira ↑ · Coulibaly ↓
74' Diop ↑ · Wahi ↓
77' Ngoumou ↑ · Amoura ↓
78' Abdi ↑ · Nkounkou ↓
Subs used · LIL
55' Bakwa ↑ · Mbappe ↓
64' Sahraoui ↑ · Onal ↓
64' Kjaergaard ↑ · André ↓
64' Giroud ↑ · Haraldsson ↓
77' Mukau ↑ · Bentaleb ↓

Statistics

NIC 2 – 1 LIL
41%
Possession (%)
59%
10
Total Shots
21
4
Shots on Target
8
6
Shots off Target
6
7
Shots Inside Box
15
3
Corner Kicks
7
4
Offsides
1
16
Fouls
9
3
Yellow Cards
1
7
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

17 · 2 – 1
Mohamed Abdelmoneim
Yellow Card
▮
5'
Nathan Ngoy
Own goal · 1–0
⚽
22'
Xavier Mandza
Yellow Card
▮
45+1'
Half-time · 1 – 0
55'
⇄
Dilane Bakwa ↓ · Ethan Mbappe ↑
Substitution 1
Mohamed Amoura
Yellow Card
▮
57'
Alidu Seidu ↓ · Youssouf Ndayishimiye ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
58'
64'
⇄
Osame Sahraoui ↓ · Basar Onal ↑
Substitution 2
64'
⇄
Maurits Kjaergaard ↓ · Benjamin André ↑
Substitution 3
64'
⇄
Olivier Giroud ↓ · Hákon Arnar Haraldsson ↑
Substitution 4
Mohamed Amoura
Assist · Gauthier Hein · 2–0
⚽
67'
Everton Pereira ↓ · Djibril Coulibaly ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
73'
Sofiane Diop ↓ · Sepe Elye Wahi ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
77'
⇄
Ngal'ayel Mukau ↓ · Nabil Bentaleb ↑
Substitution 5
Nathan Ngoumou ↓ · Mohamed Amoura ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
77'
Ali Abdi ↓ · Niels Nkounkou ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
78'
79'
⚽
Ayase Ueda
Assist · Maurits Kjaergaard · 2–1
90+1'
▮
Maurits Kjaergaard
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Nice beat Lille 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 10, 8 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Nathan Ngoy (22'), Mohamed Amoura (67'), Ayase Ueda (79').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -0.90 units (Brier 0.249).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.91 2.00 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.02 2.24 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.73 1.67 56% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Away Win 2.03 2.15 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.74 1.61 45% Cashed +0.74 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.63 2.40 30% Cashed +1.63 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.91 1.80 41% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.62 4.00 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.29 1.33 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.32 1.37 79% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Home Win 3.50 3.25 30% Cashed +2.50 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.52 1.62 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.45 3.40 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.27 1.21 66% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.27 2.88 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −0.90u −6% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
NIC – LIL @ 1.91
+13.1%
Edge
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