Lille vs Estac Troyes 2:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks AH Away 0 at 5.55 — +13.7% better than the market.

Lille hosts Estac Troyes in a Ligue 1 clash where home momentum and historical dominance could play a key role. Despite Troyes showing slightly better recent form, Lille’s home edge and past big win suggest they can impose a compact block and press effectively. The match hints at a balanced pace with potential for goals, given both sides’ attacking tendencies and moderate defensive resilience.

Lille’s home strength and past big win create a pressing edge
Troyes’ recent form shows signs of resilience and attacking threat
Moderate tempo likely, favoring tactical discipline and set-piece chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · AH Away 0

AH Away 0 @ 5.55 ✗ Lost

AI 20% Implied 18% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

LIL 4-2-3-1 · TRO 4-2-3-1

LIL · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · TRO

18 Ueda

Subs used · LIL

61'

Kjaergaard ↑ ·

Haraldsson ↓

71'

Mbappe ↑ ·

Bakwa ↓

71'

Giroud ↑ ·

Ueda ↓

71'

Perrin ↑ ·

Onal ↓

86'

André ↑ ·

Mukau ↓

Subs used · TRO

45'

Donkor ↑ ·

Maronnier ↓

75'

Nkada ↑ ·

Diawara ↓

75'

Gomis ↑ ·

Diop ↓

80'

Ripart ↑ ·

Picard ↓

80'

Koné ↑ ·

Mille ↓

Statistics

LIL 2 – 0 TRO

63%

Possession (%)

37%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

13 · 2 – 0

Tiago Santos

Assist · Dilane Bakwa · 1–0

⚽

18'

45'

⇄

Noah Donkor ↓ · Lucas Maronnier ↑

Substitution 1

Half-time · 1 – 0

Maurits Kjaergaard ↓ · Hákon Arnar Haraldsson ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

61'

Ethan Mbappe ↓ · Dilane Bakwa ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

Olivier Giroud ↓ · Ayase Ueda ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

Gaëtan Perrin ↓ · Basar Onal ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

71'

75'

⇄

Timothee Nkada ↓ · Kandet Diawara ↑

Substitution 2

75'

⇄

Iron Gomis ↓ · Mouhamed Diop ↑

Substitution 3

80'

⇄

Renaud Ripart ↓ · Hugo Picard ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

Yacouba Koné ↓ · Antoine Mille ↑

Substitution 5

Olivier Giroud

Yellow Card

▮

82'

Benjamin André ↓ · Ngal'ayel Mukau ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

86'

Ethan Mbappe

Assist · Maurits Kjaergaard · 2–0

⚽

90+3'

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Lille beat Estac Troyes 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 8, 6 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

On the scoresheet: Tiago Santos (18'), Ethan Mbappe (90+3').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.72 units (Brier 0.123).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	2.80	2.84	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.07	2.30	49%	Cashed	+1.07	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.81	1.81	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.65	1.65	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.93	1.93	48%	Cashed	+0.93	Cashed
Away Win	7.00	7.25	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.40	1.41	59%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
AH Away 0	5.55	5.41	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.10	1.10	80%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.50	2.50	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.12	1.12	59%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.87	4.50	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.39	1.47	71%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Draw	4.75	4.74	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	14.93	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	1.01	93%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.24	1.20	75%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.72u	−34% ROI

Lille vs Estac Troyes 2:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled