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Home › Italy › Serie A › Juventus — Atalanta

Juventus vs Atalanta 2:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Juventus
Juventus
Home · last 5 W W D L W
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sep · 16:00
2:0
Full-time
Atalanta
Atalanta
W W L L L Away · last 5
Referee Luca Zufferli, Italy
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 51% · book 2.10 ✓
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 46% · book 2.28 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 49% · book 2.02 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
1.30 – 0.61
Δ +0.69
Possession
52% – 48%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.19 — +12.2% better than the market.

Juventus show stronger recent form and a slight home momentum edge against Atalanta. The hosts' higher scoring potential and better points per game suggest they can control the tempo, while Atalanta's defensive resilience may keep the match tight. Expect a tactical battle with Juventus pressing to exploit their offensive edge.

  • Home momentum favors Juventus
  • Atalanta's compact defense challenges attacks
  • Moderate pace hints at a balanced game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 4.19 ✗ Lost
AI 27% Implied 24% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

JUV 4-2-3-1 · ATA 4-3-3
JUV · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · ATA 25 Vicario 15 Kalulu 3 Bremer ⚽ 26 Lucumí 2 Çelik 22 McKennie 12 Luiz 7 Conceição ⚽ 31 González 17 Alajbegović 9 Muani 29 Carnesecchi 16 Bellanova 31 Kristensen 42 Scalvini 47 Bernasconi 10 Samardžić 19 Kessié 13 Éderson 17 Ketelaere 90 Krstović 11 Rowe
Subs used · JUV
46' M. Sarr ↑ · Alajbegovic ↓
72' Zhegrova ↑ · Conceicao ↓
72' Koopmeiners ↑ · Gonzalez ↓
86' Woltemade ↑ · McKennie ↓
89' Kelly ↑ · Kolo Muani ↓
Subs used · ATA
63' Raspadori ↑ · Samardzic ↓
73' Gaetano ↑ · Kessie ↓
73' Scamacca ↑ · Krstovic ↓
84' Elmas ↑ · Rowe ↓

Statistics

JUV 2 – 0 ATA
52%
Possession (%)
48%
1.30
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.61
14
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
2
4
Shots off Target
6
10
Shots Inside Box
7
4
Corner Kicks
5
4
Offsides
0
10
Fouls
10
89%
Pass Accuracy (%)
91%
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

14 · 2 – 0
17'
▮
T. Kristensen
Yellow Card
F. Conceicao
Yellow Card
▮
22'
F. Conceicao
Assist · Z. Celik · 1–0
⚽
28'
43'
▮
F. Kessie
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
P. M. Sarr ↓ · K. Alajbegovic ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
63'
⇄
G. Raspadori ↓ · L. Samardzic ↑
Substitution 1
E. Zhegrova ↓ · F. Conceicao ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
72'
T. Koopmeiners ↓ · N. Gonzalez ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
72'
73'
⇄
G. Gaetano ↓ · F. Kessie ↑
Substitution 2
73'
⇄
G. Scamacca ↓ · N. Krstovic ↑
Substitution 3
Bremer
Assist · E. Zhegrova · 2–0
⚽
77'
84'
⇄
E. Elmas ↓ · J. Rowe ↑
Substitution 4
N. Woltemade ↓ · W. McKennie ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
86'
L. Kelly ↓ · R. Kolo Muani ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
89'
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Juventus beat Atalanta 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.30 to 0.61. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Conceicao (28'), Bremer (77').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.18 units (Brier 0.122).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.10 1.91 51% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.28 2.10 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.02 1.91 49% Cashed +1.02 Cashed
Home Win 1.62 1.70 54% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.72 1.82 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.91 1.91 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.14 3.19 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.13 5.00 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.19 3.75 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.43 1.33 72% Cashed +0.43 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.17 1.18 78% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
Under 0.5 13.00 10.99 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.03 92% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Draw 4.00 3.75 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.21 1.26 73% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.72 3.55 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.24 1.26 54% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.18u −30% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
JUV – ATA @ 4.19
+12.2%
Edge
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