FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen 3:4

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 19.00 — +14.4% better than the market.

FSV Mainz 05 hosts Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga clash where quality edges slightly favor the visitors. Leverkusen’s stronger defense and marginally better attack create a subtle tactical advantage, though Mainz’s home momentum and compact block could keep things tight. Recent form is balanced, suggesting a cautious game with moderate goal expectations, supported by odds leaning towards under 3.5 goals.

Leverkusen’s defensive solidity vs Mainz’s attacking attempts
Home side’s resilience and pressing intensity
Balanced recent form points to a tactical, measured pace

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5

Under 0.5 @ 19.00 ✗ Lost

AI 6% Implied 5% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Statistics

MAI 3 – 4 BAY

47%

Possession (%)

53%

2.91

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.71

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

21 · 3 – 4

⚽

Robert Andrich

0–1

⚽

Patrik Schick

Assist · Aleix García · 0–2

Phillip Tietz

Yellow Card

▮

20'

Anthony Caci

1–2

⚽

33'

Sheraldo Becker

Yellow Card

▮

35'

Anthony Caci

Assist · Nadiem Amiri · 2–2

⚽

42'

Half-time · 2 – 2

55'

⚽

Jarell Quansah

2–3

65'

⚽

Moussa Diaby

Assist · Afonso Moreira · 2–4

66'

⇄

Martin Terrier ↓ · Ibrahim Maza ↑

Substitution 1

Lee Jae-Sung ↓ · Eric Martel ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

70'

Danny da Costa ↓ · Anthony Caci ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

Ransford Konigsdorffer ↓ · Kacper Potulski ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

70'

75'

⇄

Nathan Tella ↓ · Afonso Moreira ↑

Substitution 2

75'

⇄

Malik Tillman ↓ · Moussa Diaby ↑

Substitution 3

Lee Jae-Sung

Yellow Card

▮

76'

Benedict Hollerbach ↓ · Sheraldo Becker ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

77'

Lennard Maloney ↓ · Kaishu Sano ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

83'

⇄

Jonas Hofmann ↓ · Patrik Schick ↑

Substitution 4

84'

⇄

Equi Fernández ↓ · Aleix García ↑

Substitution 5

Benedict Hollerbach

3–4

⚽

90+2'

90+3'

▮

Jarell Quansah

Yellow Card

Full-time · 3 – 4

Match recap

Bayer Leverkusen won 4–3 away at FSV Mainz 05. At half-time it was 2–2.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.91 to 1.71. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 16, 5 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.71 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Robert Andrich (5'), Patrik Schick (9'), Anthony Caci (33'), Anthony Caci (42'), Jarell Quansah (55'), Moussa Diaby (65'), Benedict Hollerbach (90+2').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.19 units (Brier 0.160).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.71	1.73	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.34	2.17	49%	Cashed	+1.34	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.60	2.62	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.77	2.78	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.78	1.64	49%	Cashed	+0.78	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.23	2.15	35%	Cashed	+1.23	Cashed
Home Win	2.70	3.10	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.15	2.34	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.45	1.36	73%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.40	5.49	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.40	1.40	60%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.47	1.44	56%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.57	1.67	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	19.00	18.52	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.02	94%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Draw	3.70	3.85	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.12	1.13	78%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.19u	−25% ROI

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen 3:4: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled