Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 0:5 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.36 — +3.3% better than the market.

Hamburger SV faces FSV Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga clash where both sides show signs of cautious play. Hamburg’s recent loss contrasts with Mainz’s slight edge in form, hinting at a tight contest. The odds suggest a moderate tempo with a leaning towards fewer goals, supported by both teams’ defensive setups and recent low-scoring matches.

Home momentum is limited after a recent defeat
Mainz’s resilience could keep the game compact
Expect a tactical battle with modest attacking threat

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.36 ✗ Lost

AI 76% Implied 74% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

HAM 3-4-2-1 · MAI 3-5-2

HAM · 3-4-2-1 3-5-2 · MAI

9 Moffi

Subs used · HAM

45'

Vieira ↑ ·

Nadir ↓

45'

Daka ↑ ·

Adeline ↓

45'

Nandja ↑ ·

Torunarigha ↓

64'

Stange ↑ ·

Moffi ↓

84'

Lemke ↑ ·

Wolfe ↓

Subs used · MAI

68'

Konigsdorffer ↑ ·

Becker ↓

81'

Costa ↑ ·

Caci ↓

88'

Nakuzola ↑ ·

Posch ↓

88'

Ruoppi ↑ ·

Jae-Sung ↓

88'

Maloney ↑ ·

Sano ↓

Statistics

HAM 0 – 5 MAI

54%

Possession (%)

46%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

19 · 0 – 5

19'

⚽

Sheraldo Becker

Assist · Kaishu Sano · 0–1

31'

▮

Anthony Caci

Yellow Card

Zakaria El Ouahdi

Yellow Card

▮

36'

41'

⚽

Phillipp Mwene

Assist · Sheraldo Becker · 0–2

Fábio Vieira ↓ · Bilal Nadir ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

Patson Daka ↓ · Martin Adeline ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

45'

Shafiq Nandja ↓ · Jordan Torunarigha ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

45'

Half-time · 0 – 2

48'

⚽

Phillip Tietz

Assist · Sheraldo Becker · 0–3

Otto Emerson Stange ↓ · Terem Moffi ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

64'

68'

⇄

Ransford Konigsdorffer ↓ · Sheraldo Becker ↑

Substitution 1

81'

⇄

Danny da Costa ↓ · Anthony Caci ↑

Substitution 2

83'

⚽

Phillip Tietz

Assist · Lee Jae-Sung · 0–4

Louis Pepe Lemke ↓ · David Moller Wolfe ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

84'

85'

▮

Phillipp Mwene

Yellow Card

88'

⇄

Rael Nakuzola ↓ · Stefan Posch ↑

Substitution 3

88'

⇄

Otto Ruoppi ↓ · Lee Jae-Sung ↑

Substitution 4

88'

⇄

Lennard Maloney ↓ · Kaishu Sano ↑

Substitution 5

90+1'

⚽

Ransford Konigsdorffer

Assist · Phillipp Mwene · 0–5

90+2'

▮

Sheraldo Becker

Yellow Card

Full-time · 0 – 5

Match recap

FSV Mainz 05 won 5–0 away at Hamburger SV. At half-time it was 0–2.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 8, 8 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Sheraldo Becker (19'), Phillipp Mwene (41'), Phillip Tietz (48'), Phillip Tietz (83'), Ransford Konigsdorffer (90+1').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -1.10 units (Brier 0.272).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.20	2.02	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.37	2.15	50%	Cashed	+1.37	Cashed
Home Win	2.50	2.84	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.58	2.43	36%	Cashed	+1.58	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.91	1.91	43%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.93	2.13	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.77	1.80	39%	Cashed	+0.77	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.60	2.93	26%	Cashed	+1.60	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.36	1.36	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.50	1.54	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.47	1.40	62%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.30	4.00	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.56	1.66	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.55	3.39	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.20	1.25	71%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−1.10u	−7% ROI

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 0:5: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled