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Home › Spain › La Liga › Real Madrid — Villarreal

Real Madrid vs Villarreal 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 L W W L W
Kick-off
Sat 10 Oct · 19:00
1:0
Full-time
Villarreal
Villarreal
L L W W L Away · last 5
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium · Madrid Referee Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 49% · book 2.07 ✓
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 51% · book 1.82 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 35% · book 2.47 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
0.99 – 0.64
Δ +0.35
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 2.07 — +1.7% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 2.07 ✓ Cashed
AI 49% Implied 48% +1.07u
+107%
ROI on stake

Lineups

REA 4-2-3-1 · VIL 5-3-2
REA · 4-2-3-1 5-3-2 · VIL 1 Courtois 12 Alexander-Arnold 16 Konaté 22 Rüdiger 18 Fernández 8 Valverde 14 Tchouaméni 15 Güler 5 Bellingham 25 Diomande ⚽ 10 Mbappé 25 Gulácsi 3 Freeman 6 Navarro 8 Foyth 12 Veiga 23 Cardona 14 Comesaña 18 Gueye 10 Moleiro 22 Pérez 11 Akhomach
Subs used · REA
45' Cucurella ↑ · Carreras ↓
52' Vinícius ↑ · Alexander-Arnold ↓
77' Camavinga ↑ · Güler ↓
86' Dumfries ↑ · Diomande ↓
Subs used · VIL
56' Saliba ↑ · Comesaña ↓
56' Romero ↑ · Foyth ↓
67' Moreno ↑ · Chakkour ↓
67' Mikautadze ↑ · Bermúdez ↓
86' Jmili ↑ · Moleiro ↓

Statistics

REA 1 – 0 VIL
46%
Possession (%)
54%
0.99
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.64
11
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Target
4
4
Shots off Target
7
9
Shots Inside Box
7
9
Corner Kicks
3
3
Offsides
1
8
Fouls
13
5
Yellow Cards
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

19 · 1 – 0
10'
▮
Renato Veiga
Yellow Card
Jude Bellingham
Yellow Card
▮
19'
Marc Cucurella ↓ · Álvaro Fernández Carreras ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
45'
Half-time · 0 – 0
Vinícius ↓ · Trent Alexander-Arnold ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
52'
56'
⇄
Nathan-Dylan Saliba ↓ · Santi Comesaña ↑
Substitution 1
56'
⇄
Carlos Romero ↓ · Juan Foyth ↑
Substitution 2
Yan Diomande
Assist · Federico Valverde · 1–0
⚽
62'
67'
⇄
Gerard Moreno ↓ · Ilias Akhomach Chakkour ↑
Substitution 3
67'
⇄
Georges Mikautadze ↓ · Sergi Cardona Bermúdez ↑
Substitution 4
José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix
Yellow Card
▮
68'
Vinícius
Red Card
▮
72'
Eduardo Camavinga ↓ · Arda Güler ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
77'
Ibrahima Konaté
Yellow Card
▮
81'
Antonio Rüdiger
Yellow Card
▮
83'
84'
▮
Pau Navarro
Yellow Card
Denzel Dumfries ↓ · Yan Diomande ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
86'
86'
⇄
Nizar El Jmili ↓ · Alberto Moleiro ↑
Substitution 5
Aurelien Tchouameni
Yellow Card
▮
87'
Kylian Mbappé
Yellow Card
▮
90+4'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Real Madrid beat Villarreal 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 11, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Yan Diomande (62'). Vinícius was sent off in the 72' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +5.34 units (Brier 0.280).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 2.07 2.20 49% Cashed +1.07 Cashed
Over 3.5 1.82 1.67 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.47 2.69 35% Cashed +1.47 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.09 1.10 91% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Home Win 1.33 1.36 73% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.50 1.42 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.03 1.12 73% Cashed +1.03 Cashed
Under 2.5 3.50 4.00 28% Cashed +2.50 Cashed
Draw 5.38 5.78 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 7.85 9.01 12% Cashed +6.85 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.06 1.06 88% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 3.35 3.15 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.26 1.25 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 7.50 7.30 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.62 5.43 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L +5.34u +36% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
REA – VIL @ 2.07
+1.7%
Edge
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