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Home › Spain › La Liga › Real Madrid — Villarreal

Predictions by Market: Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 L W W L W
Kick-off
Sat 10 Oct · 19:00
1:0
Full-time
Villarreal
Villarreal
L L W W L Away · last 5
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium · Madrid Referee Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · REA
73%
Best 1.40
Draw
18%
Best 6.00
Away Win · VIL
9%
Best 8.00
Value pick
Under 3.5
@ 2.07
Fair odds
2.04
book 2.07 · +1.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 49% · EV +1.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 3.5 is more likely (51%), but Under 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 72.9%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 17.9%
Odds 5.38
Show model details
Implied probability 18.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 9.2%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 6 markets
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 49.1%
Odds 2.07
Show model details
Implied probability 48.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 50.9%
Odds 1.82
Show model details
Implied probability 55.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 28.3%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 12.2%
Odds 7.85
Show model details
Implied probability 12.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5 Best in group
Probability 87.8%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 71.7%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 35.3%
Odds 2.47
Show model details
Implied probability 40.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 64.7%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Value pick
Probability 73.1%
Odds 2.03
Show model details
Implied probability 49.4%
Bet quality High
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 9.4%
Odds 3.62
Show model details
Implied probability 27.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 90.8%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 92.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 27.1%
Odds 3.35
Show model details
Implied probability 29.9%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
REA – VIL @ 2.07
+1.7%
Edge
Forecast →