Valencia vs Real Sociedad 2:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.91 — +14.6% better than the market.

Real Sociedad arrives at Estadio de Mestalla with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Valencia's defensive struggles and poor home momentum contrast with Sociedad's more balanced attack and resilience. The tactical battle may see Sociedad exploit Valencia's defensive gaps, while Valencia's offense faces a tough test against a compact away block.

Sociedad's superior overall strength and form
Valencia's defensive vulnerabilities at home
Potential for a controlled pace with fewer goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.91 ✗ Lost

AI 60% Implied 52% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

VAL 4-4-2 · RSO 4-4-2

VAL · 4-4-2 4-4-2 · RSO

9 Duro

Subs used · VAL

45'

Ejededawe ↑ ·

Ugrinic ↓

69'

Elliott ↑ ·

Rodríguez ↓

82'

Vázquez ↑ ·

Gayà ↓

82'

Labraca ↑ ·

Duro ↓

88'

Rioja ↑ ·

Danjuma ↓

Subs used · RSO

61'

Óskarsson ↑ ·

Oyarzabal ↓

61'

Barrenetxea ↑ ·

Ochieng ↓

69'

Herrera ↑ ·

Gorrotxategi ↓

69'

Muñoz ↑ ·

Gómez ↓

87'

Zakharyan ↑ ·

Sučić ↓

Statistics

VAL 2 – 3 RSO

54%

Possession (%)

46%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

20 · 2 – 3

Justin De Haas

Yellow Card

▮

11'

José Gayà

Yellow Card

▮

12'

26'

⚽

Luka Sučić

Assist · Job Ochieng · 0–1

David Otorbi Ejededawe ↓ · Filip Ugrinic ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

Half-time · 0 – 1

54'

▮

Luka Sučić

Yellow Card

Aaron Mayol

Assist · Hugo Duro · 1–1

⚽

57'

61'

⇄

Orri Steinn Óskarsson ↓ · Mikel Oyarzabal ↑

Substitution 1

61'

⇄

Ander Barrenetxea ↓ · Job Ochieng ↑

Substitution 2

69'

⇄

Yangel Herrera ↓ · Jon Gorrotxategi ↑

Substitution 3

69'

⇄

Aihen Muñoz ↓ · Sergio Gómez ↑

Substitution 4

Harvey Elliott ↓ · Guido Rodríguez ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

75'

⚽

Carlos Soler (P)

Penalty · 1–2

Jesús Vázquez ↓ · José Gayà ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

82'

Aimar Blázquez Labraca ↓ · Hugo Duro ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

82'

Luken Beitia Aguirregomezcorta

Own goal · 2–2

⚽

84'

87'

⇄

Arsen Zakharyan ↓ · Luka Sučić ↑

Substitution 5

Luis Rioja ↓ · Arnaut Danjuma ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

90+1'

⚽

Ander Barrenetxea

Assist · Carlos Soler · 2–3

90+6'

▮

Orri Steinn Óskarsson

Yellow Card

90+6'

▮

Orri Steinn Óskarsson

Red Card

Full-time · 2 – 3

Match recap

Real Sociedad won 3–2 away at Valencia. At half-time it was 0–1.

For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Luka Sučić (26'), Aaron Mayol (57'), Carlos Soler (75'), Luken Beitia Aguirregomezcorta (84'), Ander Barrenetxea (90+1'). Orri Steinn Óskarsson was sent off in the 90+6' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.00 units (Brier 0.241).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.50	2.55	47%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.91	1.91	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.05	2.05	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.86	1.87	47%	Cashed	+0.86	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.91	1.91	40%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.72	1.71	44%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
Home Win	2.75	2.80	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.04	2.03	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.44	1.42	73%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.00	10.99	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.55	3.50	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.32	1.33	81%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.50	1.50	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.45	3.34	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.04	85%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.28	1.28	64%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.27	3.25	19%	Cashed	+2.27	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.00u	−12% ROI

Valencia vs Real Sociedad 2:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled